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To: CSM
Kasich is the one with NO path to the nomination, outside a contested convention. He should be the one to drop out.

This is exactly his purpose, he will not drop out. The race between Cruz and trump is not close at all because Cruz can not possibly win unless Trump is not in the race.

179 posted on 03/16/2016 4:46:09 PM PDT by itsahoot
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To: itsahoot

“The race between Cruz and trump is not close at all because Cruz can not possibly win unless Trump is not in the race.”

In my scenario builder, it is most likely that neither Trump, nor Cruz gets to the 1237 number. So, your statement above could be as accurately stated with Trump not being able to win either.

I break them down as follows:

Trump wins:
WTA States: Wisconsin, Delaware, Maryland, WV, NJ
Proportional: NY, Conn, RI, Oregon and Washington

Cruz Wins:
WTA States: Arizona, ND, Penn, Ind, Nebraska, CA, Montana and SD.
Proportional: Utah and NM

If that scenario plays out, then it is Cruz 978 and Trump 933. However, I am not very comfortable with Penn or California, so if you flip those then you have Trump leading 1176 to 735.

The reality is that right now, Trump needs Cruz to drop out in order to get to the 1237 threshold. I don’t see either one of them dropping out and in the end I think they will both be mid 900’s.


206 posted on 03/17/2016 8:12:52 AM PDT by CSM (White wine sipping, caviar munching, Georgetown cocktail circuit circulating, Perrier conservative.)
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