Jedi I know you are a big Cruz homer and that’s fine but Ted’s firewall was always the South. You talk about Utah which is a proportional state yet on the same day AZ is a WTA with many more delegates and Trump will win it. States like PA, MD, NY, NJ and likely CA are all likely Trump states. Cruz has basically no shot at any of them yet to win the nomination he’d have to carry them all.
Cruz has been on the ground in CA for a year already, and he will do very well here. Because the bulk of the delegates are WTA by congressional district, you really have 54 separate elections. Because there are so few Republicans in so may congressional districts, being able to identify those voters and getting them to vote can make much more of a difference than “yuuge” rallies in Orange County or San Diego. You get just as many delegates by winning 10k votes in Pelosi’s district as you would by winning 100K votes in Orange County. And Cruz’s team has the big data model down pat.
I think Trump will lose CA easily even in a 3-way-race. NY and NJ are probably Trumpland. I think Cruz could get the others in a one-on-one. With Kasich in, probably not.