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Cruz's Path to Victory: The Math and Science
Conservative Review ^ | 3/10/2016 | Daniel Horowitz

Posted on 03/14/2016 8:43:15 PM PDT by JediJones

...if Rubio and Kasich exit the race after March 15...Ted Cruz can beat out Donald Trump...

[Trump] has a very high floor of support because he has garnered more media attention than any candidate in the history of presidential politics. ...that same media attention has convinced almost every other Republican voter...to oppose him at all costs.

...had this battle been a two man race after Super Tuesday, Cruz would already be leading...

The March 15 Roadblock

Donald Trump could not ask for a more fortuitous situation in which the mixture of his challengers, their home states, and winner-take-all status all coalesce in his favor at the perfect time.

...by having Kasich and Rubio both lose their states and exit the race, Cruz will finally be able to go man-a-mano against Trump...

Now, what happens if Trump wins the 99 delegates in Florida, especially if he wins the 66 delegates in Ohio? Won’t this be the end of the race? Doesn’t Trump have it in the bag? This will be the narrative the fawning media tries to promulgate on the night of March 15. However...this scenario will actually lead to the downfall of Trump.

...even a more pessimistic spread...would likely result in Trump coming out of Super Tuesday 2.0 no more than 200 delegates ahead of Cruz.

...polls have consistently shown that Cruz would beat Trump head-to-head in almost every state...[Trump] has an impervious ceiling in the low 40s.

...[Cruz] would have a great path to winning a plurality and coming into a convention with the mandate...

...on June 8: Cruz 1239, Trump 987...roughly 250 for other candidates.

...all built upon the assumption that Kasich and Rubio leave the race.

...having Kasich (or even Rubio) stay in the race along with Cruz will also result in Trump missing the delegate majority...

(Excerpt) Read more at conservativereview.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: canadian; cruz; cruz2016; cruzcampaign; cruzie; gop; ineligible; kasich; president; primary; rubio; trump
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To: JediJones
There is a fanatical, unreasoning devotion and cult worship of him that we last saw with Obama supporters.

Having been a Cruz supporter once, I'd say you have that backwards. The level of idolatry about your newly minted weasel of a candidate is beyond belief.

This last weekend was really fun watching the gyrations Cruzers made, and the pretzels they became defending his excusing the totalitarian leftist rent a mobs in Chicago

41 posted on 03/14/2016 10:24:31 PM PDT by Lakeshark (One time Cruz supporter who now prefers Trump. Yes, there are good reasons.)
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To: JediJones

I prefer theconservativetreehouse. Breitbart has been a little too confused this year.

TCTH with fidelity to the facts and all the dots.


42 posted on 03/14/2016 10:49:56 PM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming)
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To: Lakeshark

He didn’t excuse them, he said there is no excuse for them.


43 posted on 03/14/2016 11:00:12 PM PDT by JediJones (TRUMP 6/18/2012 on Fox News: "We have to show some compassion. We just can't throw everybody out.")
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To: JediJones
Oh, I saw the video, he blamed Trump rather than the protesters.

It was despicable. Anyone that doesn't understand this was desperation from a man who is profoundly dishonest in what he says should be ashamed.

44 posted on 03/14/2016 11:21:12 PM PDT by Lakeshark (One time Cruz supporter who now prefers Trump. Yes, there are good reasons.)
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To: JediJones
The full article has many more hard stats and numbers on where and how Cruz wins.

The only way he can win is cheat.

45 posted on 03/14/2016 11:33:08 PM PDT by itsahoot
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To: JediJones
He didn’t excuse them, he said there is no excuse for them.

Sort of like; I like Sarah but......

46 posted on 03/14/2016 11:44:21 PM PDT by itsahoot
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To: JediJones

Hugh Hewitt signaled that a Kasich/Cruz ticket is what the establishment has in mind now.
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Hewitt is a phony. Don’t trust anything he says.

Kasich will never be the nominee and Cruz as VP would be a waste of his abilities. If not POTUS, Cruz would be a good SCOTUS Justice or at least AG. ....VP is basically a nothing burger position, with Dick Cheney being the exception in the last four or five decades.


47 posted on 03/15/2016 2:33:10 AM PDT by octex
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To: JediJones

I think Trump/Kasich is more likely, ...
************************
Jedi, I enjoy your positive posts that are not always trashing others.

I disagree with this one, however, as I can’t imagine a Conservative ever voting for the Liberal Kasich. He lives in a fantasy land of 3-4 decades ago (which he reminds everyone of at every debate by constantly talking about his past).


48 posted on 03/15/2016 2:47:08 AM PDT by octex
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To: kabar

And Trump will beat Cruz soundly in NY and AZ.
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I’ll give you NY. Why would AZ not vote for Cruz, who favors the 2nd and 10th Amendments and enforcement of immigration laws? ...Trump has said little about States’ rights (the 10th) and seems to think he could rule the country like his business empire, as the Executive.


49 posted on 03/15/2016 2:56:13 AM PDT by octex
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To: JediJones
Desperate Straw Graspers of America - roll the dice as many times as it takes to come up with a statistical glitch that "supports you wishes". After all, it's Math and Math is Science and Science can be settled - if one happens to agree with the current set of equations that are in vogue.
50 posted on 03/15/2016 3:50:15 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: JediJones

This is one of the main reasons I have lost respect for Kasich and Rubio.

Knowing they have no chance for victory, they have purposely stayed in the race just to gum up the works.

It was clear that this was a 2 man race after super Tuesday.

Hannity called Kasich out for this yesterday.

I am a Cruz supporter, but I will vote for Trump if he wins the nomination.

Can anyone get to Cleveland with enough delegates?

Not sure now, we will see.


51 posted on 03/15/2016 5:52:11 AM PDT by GrouchoTex (...and ye shall know the Truth and the Truth shall set you free.)
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To: octex

Immigtration is a big issue in AZ. Trump has the endorsements of Joe Arpaio and Jan Brewer. The Wall is very important given what is happening at the border. Criminal alien crime is rampant.

AZ will go to Trump big time.


52 posted on 03/15/2016 5:56:16 AM PDT by kabar
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To: JediJones

Well there’s a lot of assumptions and more than a little wishful thinking in that. But I did my part to make it happen by voting for Cruz on my way in to work this morning.


53 posted on 03/15/2016 5:59:05 AM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: Disestablishmentarian
If it weren’t for Texas, Cruz would already be in Rubioland.

He didn't make 50%, so hey...we tried. LOL!

54 posted on 03/15/2016 6:02:32 AM PDT by MamaTexan (I am a person as created by the Law of Nature, not a person as created by the laws of Man.)
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To: JediJones
"This is a very optimistic outlook"
Yes, it is!

The converse is that if Cruz DOESN'T have a very good day today then he's toast. He has no chance of getting to the convention with a majority.

55 posted on 03/15/2016 6:08:01 AM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat/RINO Party!)
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To: octex
I disagree with this one, however, as I can’t imagine a Conservative ever voting for the Liberal Kasich.

I don't disagree with that but that has nothing to do with Trump picking him as V.P. Trump is not any kind of core conservative. He would pick Kasich just to win Ohio. I don't think Trump cares at all what his running mate's positions are because he's truly flexible on all the issues, meaning he'll take whatever position he has to to make his poll numbers go up. Hillary might be a vote for Obama's 3rd term but Trump is a vote for Bill Clinton's 3rd term.

56 posted on 03/16/2016 6:17:15 AM PDT by JediJones (I'm with Ted Cruz, Mark Levin, Dana Loesch, Steve Deace, Michelle Malkin, James Woods & Ben Shapiro)
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To: tatown

Trump will beat Hillary like a rented mule.


This is incorrect. Hillary already has about 90% of the electoral votes needed even before the election. Millions and millions of conservatives as well as many GOPe will stay home and not vote for Trump. Like it or not, this is what is going to happen if Trump is nominated.


57 posted on 03/16/2016 9:30:17 AM PDT by cornfedcowboy
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To: cornfedcowboy

Incoherent? You might want to look at the total number of votes accumulated by Trump (where the GOP vote is being split to multiple candidates) and Hillary (only challenged by a 75 year old socialist) thus far. Hilliary will get steam rolled.


58 posted on 03/16/2016 9:34:21 AM PDT by tatown (Cruznoccio - A Washington DC Production)
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To: JediJones
...if Rubio and Kasich exit the race after March 15...Ted Cruz can beat out Donald Trump...

Well, that didn't happen so I guess the writer now believes Trump is the nominee?

59 posted on 03/16/2016 9:37:27 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: GrouchoTex

I agree with the sentiment of your post but it is fair for a candidate to stay in the race and win delegates. It is even more important when there is no winner by majority(1237 delegates). Your candidacy is still valid if people are still wanting to vote for you. This nomination is probably going to a second vote. No, Kasich will not be the nominee but he may have enough clout to garner himself a spot on the ticket if he recommends to his delegates to vote for a particular nominee.


60 posted on 03/16/2016 9:39:49 AM PDT by cornfedcowboy
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