The unification theory as I am going to call it, is the last vestige of the Trump can’t win derangement syndrome.
There is absolutely no evidence that the unification to a single non Trump candidate will keep Trump from winning the nomination. Its based on suppositions and wishful thinking and pretty much has about as much factual validity to it as pixie dust.
The next big primary date is 5 days away, and the way things look today, Trump will end the 15th sitting around 700-800 +/- total delegates... with Cruz sitting around 425. At that point more than half of the delegates are awarded... Trump needs to win 30% of the outstanding delegates to hit the magical 1237... Cruz would need to win something like 60%... Now keep in mind, that’s 60% of the delegates, not 60% of the remaining states.
The supposition that consolidation will get Cruz to that point is not backed up by fact... Will Cruz benefit from consolidation? Sure.... will that suddenly have him winning 60% of the delegates when to date he’s averaging about 32% of the delegates is just not living in reality. Trump is averaging about 44% of the delegates, right now, not counting the bounce he’ll get in the percentage if he takes the WTA states Tuesday.
Trump needs 7% to get to 51% in a head to head, Cruz needs 19%... That means Cruz has to rely on roughly 2/3 of the consolidation to break for him, and that Trump will not get ~1/3 of better of them, to break for him, and not swell his numbers in open states with new voters to make up any consolidation.. this is all highly highly unlikely.
I do not think Consolidation will stop Trump from winning PA, NJ, NY, CA and other states that Cruz will not play well in. Trump doesn’t have to win the majority of the states, not even a majority of the delegates, he just needs to win about 400 ish of those outstanding... and I don’t see any way even with consolidation that’s a likely scenario, assuming Trump does well next Tuesday.
Time will tell.
I think you’re right. If Rubio and Kasich go down on March 15, it’s over. Cruz by himself can’t keep Trump from the nomination. Rubio, Kasich, and Cruz still in the race could, but for that to happen, Rubio and Kasich would need to win their home states, and right now that’s not looking likely to happen.