Look at who “our” candidates were. Bush, McCain, and Romney are the very essence of what Reagan Democrats and Reagan Independents despise about the Republican party.
I think you have it right.
Anecdotally, I don’t know if it will happen or not, but I have heard many people who usually vote democrat (union blue collar types) indicate support for Trump. There is no doubt in my mind that Trump will capture a sizable number of blue collar democrats, but many folks claim they don’t see it.
On top of this, I don’t think many people like Hillary. Conventional wisdom and the talking heads (along with many of us) have been wrong about Trump since this race started.
If Trump wins big (and he could) I am still not sure many of us are getting what we think we are, but as my tagline says - ABH.
I’ll take your word for it, but, I’m still not gonna get my hopes up again.