Not a “scientific poll” by any means but a straw poll we took here in a Western NC town a couple days ago had Cruz coming out on top.
Anecdotally, the women in these parts don’t like Trump’s “aggressiveness” and that he’s “too mean.”
If one is a Trump supporter, would probably like to see a bigger edge in Ohio at this point if the trend of day of voters moving away from Trump hold true there, but regardless, that he leads and has broken 40% in Ohio is not insignificant. I think he wins there by a hair, but a Kasich win would not be a surprise.
Possible that by the end of next Tuesday Trump will have extended his lead in delegate count to north of 250.
I think that is the case everywhere. Many women and religious people are turned off by Trump's "alpha male" demeanor. They would prefer their politicians to be smooth and polished. I know that Trump is losing many of those voters with his bombastic style. Ultimately I think Trump will win most of them back for the general.
My guess is that Trump feels that he needs to take this approach to get through the primaries and that he'll smooth out his rough edges after his nomination is secure.
Which town? I have a lot of ties to Western NC...