[babble-on]

Well, Trump is not going to win New York, and NJ is a long-shot, too. But putting Pennsylvania in play is real. Still, it would be very hard to win the White House while losing Ohio. The map just doesn’t really work without you guys.

So are you saying you think it’s not likely that Trump wins OH?
What if Kasich were his VP ? Would that help or hurt?

[xzins]

If restricted to the normal pathway to victory, then Trump has to make a case to win Ohio in the general. I think Hillary is reviled in Ohio, but I thought Obama would be rejected, and he wasn’t.

If Trump has Kasich as VP, then Ohio in the general would be easy.

BUT, I DO think that NY will be in play. Trump is a real New Yorker, he has street cred in NY, and New York governors have regularly been republican.

So, against a wounded Clinton, I think he has a chance to win New York. Definitely New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

[RC one]

the key to winning Ohio, for any Republican, will be winning black votes and union votes in the Toledo, Cleveland, Akron, Dayton, Cincinnati, and Columbus areas. In every Presidential election in recent memory, the state has been overwhelmingly red with the exception of those areas.

I live in Toledo. My wife is a union member and a state government employee. At this time, she is enthusiastically behind Donald Trump because she likes his tax plan and his illegal immigration policy. She despises Governor Kasich and voted against him as did most Ohio union members over the whole SB5 issue back in 2011. This was widely perceived as an attack on collective bargaining by John Kasich. As such, John Kasich is probably not going to help win over union votes in urban areas.