One thing is certain, either the primary model is right or the WSJ/NBC and ABC/WaPo poll are right.
They can’t both be right.
But they CAN both be wrong.
Voters, the 130 million or so who are not paying attention, will make up their minds between October 25 and November 7.
Until then, this is all meaningless.
I’d be curious how the primary model operates, it could be a valid weighing of the factors or it could be chicken entrails (but direct polls before any real debating has happened are at least equally suspect).
I think Trump on Clinton will be a cathartic moment for America. All those pent up lies, and one merciless Alpha Dog on her back. The polls will zoom up.
Since we don’t have a national election by way of popular vote wins, but actually have the Electoral College, such polls are really not very useful.
Polls on a state by state basis, with a large and honest sample from all over each state (not concentrated in cities), may be more useful.
Polls with only registered voters are also not particularly useful. Likely voters are much more useful.
All in all, polls such as these are almost always published to sway opinion, not to accurately reflect opinion.