> “Why would Trump go third party? He signed a ‘pledge’ and has said in his rallies, he will support the Republican ticket...”
Yes, and he is the frontrunner, and will be the frontrunner, so it follows that he will support the frontrunner=himself.
The way a 3rd party springs into existence (and they can most certainly and probably will win) is if the GOPe changes the rules for the Convention in a blatant attempt to deny Trump the nomination. Then it becomes clear he cannot support THEIR choice because he is the frontrunner and they are not supporting the frontrunner.
It’s likely that Trump wins regardless because he pulls in a large swath of the registered independents that now make up 42% of the electorate, yes 42%! He pulls in all the disaffected Perot blue collars and he pulls in the Reagan democrats (blue collar dems). He will do very well with Blacks and Hispanics. In terms of popular vote should easily top the popular votes of the dems and what’s left of the GOP.
A majority of the popular vote is not required for winning the White House. What is required are 270 electoral votes.
If Trump falls short of 270 electoral votes, then according to the 12th Amendment the House casts 50 votes (one for each state delegation), and 26+ are required to elect the President. If the House fails to cast at 26 votes, then it goes to the Senate where 100 votes are cast and 51 are needed to elect.
If it goes to the House and the state delegations follow the will of their constituents, then it takes only 26 states to put Donald Trump in the White House.
But the House is beyond corrupt, it is actually captured enormous financial interests (special interests), so the members care not about their constituents when they see they can live in splendor and high security for the rest of their lives. This is true. They will thwart their constituents because they have a golden parachute and they think that as years go by all will be forgotten except a few here and there that are sour grapes. These members are also more often than not separated from the communities of their origin and have lived as transplants in the Beltway region for so long that their lives are essentially permanent in their new surroundings. As long as the parachute is there, most members will do as they are told.