By next week Trump could be half way to the delegate count he needs with most of the Northeast, West and Southwest still to vote. Game over for Rubio and Cruz if Trump wins Florida and Ohio.
Trump is at an estimated 461 now, but let’s play a game of “what if”.
(The scenario below is completely for fun and playing with the numbers. They aren’t wishful thinking or a prediction.)
Let’s say Trump wins Ohio and Florida, that gives him 165 votes. Let’s say he comes in second in NC with 37% of the vote to Cruz at 41%. Then he comes in second in Missouri to Cruz, 36% to 39% , but wins 3 of the 8 congressional districts. Then he looses again to Cruz in a squeaker in Illinois 43% to 42%, and carries 9 of 18 Congressional districts. What does that do to his numbers and Cruz’s numbers?
Lets do the math!
Trump = 461 + 165 (FL,OH) + 51 (NC) + 15 (MO) + 27 (IL) = 719
Cruz = 360 + 57 (NC) + 37 (MO) + 39 (IL) = 493
Still a really, really good set up for Trump, but clearly not a knock out blow again. In fact, the above scenario sets him behind the curve on where he needs to be.
And that is assuming he picks up Ohio, where Kasich is within striking distance. Will Rubio’s collapse send enough of his voters to Kasich to make up the difference? That is a very intriguing question and it will be interesting to see the polls this week.