Fallacious argument there. The important question is, to whom would Rubio and Kasich supporters go if they drop out. The fact that 60% are not currently voting for Trump and 80% are not voting for Cruz has absolutely nothing to do with who those voters would vote for, with Rubio and Kasich out of the race. I believe recent polling has shown the vast majority would go to Cruz, not Trump. I do believe there is indeed a Trump “ceiling” of around 40 to 45%. The only way we will know is if Rubio and Kasich are out.
Well, many folks foolishly believe Cruz is a ‘Spirit filled’ Christian and is ‘America first’ like Reagan.
Trump was up at around 48% in Michigan last night - WITH Kasich and Rubio in the race. Thus, I don’t believe in the “ceiling” that you’re talking about. At a certain point, the mathematics of anyone else winning become either prohibitive or outright impossible. If Trump takes FL and OH, which the polls seem to indicate is likely, then Cruz would just about need to run the table on everything else besides NY (which will NEVER vote for Cruz, and that’s 95 winner-take-all delegates). That isn’t going to happen.
You are also ignoring the momentum that winning produces. People generally don’t like to vote for someone who they believe will lose. That pushes people into Trump’s camp.
Anyway, it ISN’T a fallacious argument - the meme that the GOPe is pushing is what is fallacious. It automatically assumes that all those not voting for Trump now, when there are several other candidates, won’t vote for him (i.e. that he’s not their #2 choice), and that ALL of those not voting for Cruz now will do so. THAT is fallacious. FYI, Trump is the #2 choice for a LOT of voters who are just sick and tired of the GOPe and their betrayal of both the voters and the country over the last couple of generations.
Well, that's progress, I guess.