Yes I do. He still has an audience; that will continue. I believe he will hang in until after the election.
Rush Limbaugh’s lucrative $400 million eight-year contract expires this Summer. The question about “Will he stay?” applies to iHeart/Premiere in particular and to terrestrial radio in general. Short answer and prediction – yes. True, his show’s spot revenues took a hit from the Sandra Fluke controversy, which flared up four years ago, in late February 2012. That was the beginning of a miserable period for sellers on talk-based stations. What began as an outing of Rush’s sponsors broadened to an avoidance by some buyers of any “controversial” shows or stations. What’s left for Limbaugh is a core of committed advertisers who are “fire-proof.” True, the ad revenue in 2016 isn’t what it was when Premiere renewed Rush in 2008. But he still brings in money for iHeart, much of it off-air, with the website and ancillary activities. Would Rush follow Howard Stern and Dr. Laura to SiriusXM? Without mentioning Limbaugh, CEO Jim Meyer indicates to Wall Street that he’s got money for the right kind of talent deals. But one talk-industry veteran tells NOW that “Rush has said point-blank that he would never abandon them by allowing his content on ‘competing’ platforms.” This observer says “Bob Pittman loves big stars - look at what he pays Ryan Seacrest.” He says “Rush is a proud man and he wouldn’t accept an offer he deemed insulting. But I think they’ll find the right number and renew him.” Not for another eight years (he’s 65 now). But why not stay in the catbird seat for the rest of the 2016 political campaign and beyond? One nervous affiliate asks why he hasn’t heard anything about a renewal. Maybe it’s because this contract negotiation doesn’t need to be noisy.
Another path for Rush Limbaugh? Yesterday’s lead story here, about the likelihood that he’ll renew with Premiere – though not at the colossal salary he signed for in 2008 – sparked several NOW readers to suggest that he won’t stay. One talk veteran says “The best option for Rush, by far, is starting his own Internet TV/radio simulcast talk show network using the model of Anthony Cumia’s highly-successful pay site.” This pro says “there’s money there, and think of all the conservative radio talkers who could join Rush on one or more channels – not to mention ambitious pundits, experts, political consultants, ex-pols, media hopefuls, etc.” (One conservative talker may have just offered Limbaugh a glimpse of what that might look like - see the upcoming story here about “LevinTV” from Mark Levin.) Most of Limbaugh’s life, he’s depended on others to handle the business of his show and its syndication. First that was former ABC Radio exec Ed McLaughlin (EFM Media), and later it was iHeart-owned Premiere. For this renewal, iHeart probably isn’t offering anything like the eight-year $400 million contract Rush signed in 2008. That was the sweet spot for Rush, just as the economy was sinking into recession, and before the Sandra Fluke episode, and the more recent loss of key affiliates.
Rush’s affiliate losses have piled up. Stations pay money and also run spots for Rush (via Premiere), and some have determined it’s not worth the commitment. We’ve seen them week by week, and here’s a brief list – There’s L.A. (iHeart moving Rush from KFI to KEIB). New York (from Cumulus’ WABC to iHeart’s WOR). Pittsburgh (from IHeart’s WPGB, now country “Big,” to Frank Iorio’s WJAS/1320). Boston (off Entercom’s WRKO and finding refuge at iHeart’s low-rated WKOX). And Indy (Emmis dropping Rush on WIBC, and iHeart bunking Limbaugh with mostly-sports WNDE). Rush is still gold to his key advertisers, mostly the direct-response players. And he brings in money on the website and his ancillary projects that iHeart manages. Will he be tempted to be an entrepreneur this time and launch his own Internet-based venture? Go to satellite radio, which would welcome him with open arms? Or take a reduced check and a shorter-term renewal from iHeart? He could also, at age 65, simply retire. But it’s hard imagine that in the heat of the 2016 political campaign. For all of radio, Rush Limbaugh’s future is one of 2016’s most important stories.