I think we both posted near the same time, so you likely missed my second post.
I’d give Cruz a 25% chance of making it to 50%, not just because of that one poll, but because of the trend over the last 5 or 6 days. There’s an upward trend, and as with stocks, “the trend is your friend.” But Cruz will likely fall short.
If Cruz makes it to 50%, he’ll be talking votes from Rubio thus keeping him under 20%. (No one can take votes from Trump, because of the intense nature of the love between Trump & his followers that dare not speak its name.)