This is very good news for Cruz, if it can be trusted. Cruz polls far better among “very conservative” than “moderate” or “somewhat conservative.”
NBC/WSJ tilted too heavily towards Cruz compared to most other pollsters, but I’m looking to them to show RELATIVE strength among groups.
Among moderates, Trump led Cruz, 20-11. Among rather conservatives, he led 32-21. But among very conservatives, he lost 22-42.
Again, I recognize that NBC/WSJ was more favorable towards Cruz than other polls, and even they didn’t predict a Cruz win. But if you take NBC/WSJ’s subpopulations and adjust them to the turnout shown by the exit poll, Cruz would actually win.
Mind you, that’s a big “if.”
The camps are being WAY too quiet: was there a major upset? Nobody’s crowing!
Trump dominating Cruz in Patriotic and Very Patriotic! 63-8, 81-4
(I made that up, by the way)