If UKIP has more members now than last year, if it has more votes at the last election than it did at the one before, if had more MP's than it did the election before (only one but more than zero), if it has more MEP's now than it did in the last European election cycle, then surely if follows that its star is still rising. Your argument basically boils down to "UKIP aren't going anywhere, therefore for meaningfull change you need to vote for someone else", which basically is a self-fulfilling prophecy. I don't think UKIP has peaked at all, but I'm OK that all the clever people convince themselves it has. Victory will be all the sweeter.
Cameron has invested his political credit very heavily into staying in the EU.
UKIP has moved to dump the NF residue that came aboard, and bigots who show their true colors, generally after they’ve run for office, and that’s great, but it *doesn’t matter why* Galloway was invited, it was a stupid move, because he’s all about anti-Semitism and jihad-coddling, and little else.
UKIP’s position on the EU appears to be shared by a lot of people across all party lines — probably not a majority — who otherwise find nothing appealing about UKIP. The Conservatives won an outright majority thanks in part to the failure of Scottish independence in 2014; because the union had endured, the SNP destroyed Labour in its former Scottish strongholds. The Tories also won in part because Cameron promised an up-or-down referendum on EU membership, but offered nothing else to UKIP.
UKIP — zero seats.
What’s the next move? If the referendum fails, and the UK stays in the EU? Will there be a big surge into UKIP?
UKIP Could Win Over 100 Seats Say Experts [10/11/2014]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3214113/posts
Farage on Cameron renegotiation attempt: Hardly worth the wait - truly pathetic
http://www.ukipmeps.org/news_1119_Farage-on-Cameron-renegotiation-attempt-Hardly-worth-the-wait-—truly-pathetic.html
Nigel Farage: People Have Overreacted To Trump, He Is ‘Part Of The Democratic Process’ [12/12/2015]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3371690/posts
Nigel Farage: I share concerns with Donald Trump [July 15, 2015]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/gop/3312302/posts