I think SC will be MUCH closer than many people think and we could see SEVERAL big surprises.
Cruz’s ground game is worth as much as 5 points over his polling.
And dont underestimate last minute momentum both negative and positive.
On the Real Clear Average chart you can now clearly see a fairly steep decline in Trumps numbers (although he is still ahead) and a fairly steep increase in both Cruz and Rubio’s numbers.
Late deciders, and the impact of Trumps comments in the last debate about W lying us into war and all the great things planned parenthood does might lead to several surprises in SC.
Trump should still win, but it might be a lot closer than anyone thought, and 2nd might be a surprise too.
I think Trump’s support after his Iraq comments will take a big hit where he can least afford it: voter turnout. I don’t think any of his voters will go with Cruz or Rubio, but a lot of his supporters are moderates and liberals. (Despite what they’re telling pollsters.) They just may decide to vote in the Democrat primary instead. SC has an open primary without party identification. That’s how Lindsay always wins in the republican primary.
It also might be a lot bigger Trump win than most people thought. Many dems and indies are not being polled.