I cant argue with you on your OP. But I would say he has a chance of at NJ for one, and an outside chance at some of the other states in NE outside of NY.
West coast? Forget it. The whole continental west coast should be kicked out of the union. I dont see him taking MN either, although MN has done some real strange stuff.
After SC we will see how it all shakes out for both Cruz and Trump.
Let me just add a few thoughts to chew on. He could be anywhere in the world he chose to be. He has the means. Mr. Trump chooses NYC. He loves that city. The people know it. He loves this State and is a native son. You know one NY value that many people overlook? We watch out for our own. If we could every year, we'd have a subway series! Go Trump 2016!