I’m not so sure that it will be a close race. The last poll in late January has Trump leading by 16 points, with Cruz the distant 2nd. Granted, this was prior to Cruz’s victory in IA, and Trump’s lopsided victory in NH. However, a FL poll out yesterday, taken after IA, showed that Cruz got next to no bounce out of IA, and Trump retains a double digit lead in FL.
It should also be noted that in NH the Real Clear Politics average for Trump was 31, and he won by 35, he over-performed the polling. This may also be a factor in SC, as it is a primary and not a caucus, and doesn’t require the same type of ground game.
Given the massive size of Trump’s win in NH, the momentum is clearly on his side.
Yesterday, Cruz held a rally of 200 people, and Trump rallied about 5,000.