I’ve seen a lot of people on FR talking about how Cruz is going to win SC, because of the high number of evangelicals who vote in the primary. They never seem to have an answer when it’s pointed out that in the last poll (pre IA and NH) has Trump leading Cruz by 16 points. Sometimes they point out that the poll does take into account a hoped for IA bounce for Cruz. I grant them that, but point out that Trump had a massive crushing victory in NH, so if Cruz gets and IA bounce, Trump would likewise get a NH bounce. One poll I saw from FL taken AFTER IA doesn’t show that Cruz got much, if any, bounce from IA, because Trump still has a huge lead.
And Trump is leading by 19% over the same time frame in another. See post 9.
Plus keep in mind South Carolina does not have the hanky panky of the caucuses. That had a lot to do with the results. Look what they did to Bernie in Iowa.
Trump has a big lead. I thought the silly ad actually helped Trump look tough and like an action hero knocking down the house (which never happened).
Cruz has hardcore fans here (he’s my 2 and a SCOTUS pick).
But Trump has the momentum and the lead. A 1/2 finish would be great. Need to keep the Rubo/Bush votes well below Trump and Cruz.