Exactly! Trump and Cruz are splitting the conservatives, with a few spilling over to the others. But there’s a finite number of them to divide up and as we see on FR they’re not likely to jump ship and switch sides during the primary season. Different numbers exist, but Gallup says 38% of the population identifies as conservative, but when you get into specifics, many more are liberal on social issues (which probably means they don’t define conservative the same way). Again, however many there are, they are split, and not all of them even vote.
So we have to ask how many independents, moderates, “Reagan democrats” or whatever you call them can Cruz pull vs. how many can Trump pull? We now that virtually none of the hardcore liberals will vote for either of them, so the appeal to the moderates seems to be the key question. And that’s why as a Trump fan I encourage Cruz to attack him all day long for “not being conservative enough”.
In a nation that now has socialized medicine, women and gays in the military, LGBT-whatevers can get married or sue anyone who tries to stop them, and the federal government is the most prosperous industry - this is clearly not the USA of the Reagan years, nor the one Cruz wishes it was.
Then why did your ready-made moderates McCain and Romney fail?