Posted on 02/10/2016 5:38:36 AM PST by Helicondelta
Donald Trump got everything he wanted in New Hampshire primary--and a whole lot more. He's not only a stronger frontrunner in the Republican race than ever; he's now in the driver's seat on the road to the presidential nomination.
Trump is dominant. Here are a few examples:
Every Republican candidate who finished first and second in Iowa and New Hampshire has won the presidential nomination. Having done so, Trump is now in a class with Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, George W. Bush, and Mitt Romney. John McCain was a partial exception in 2000, having basically skipped Iowa and then won in New Hampshire. And it doesn't matter where the first and second place finishes occurred. Reagan was second in Iowa in 1980, then won New Hampshire. Dole won Iowa in 1996 and settled for second to Pat Buchanan in New Hampshire.
That New Hampshire failed to force all the marginal candidates out of the race is a boon for Trump. There's still no single "establishment" candidate to oppose him. There are three, maybe four, and they're fighting each other, not Trump. This is important. If Jeb Bush is still running when the Florida primary occurs on March 15, he'll split the establishment vote with Marco Rubio. And Trump will win Florida. A similar situation will exist in Ohio if Kasich, the state's governor, hangs around. Kasich and Rubio and maybe Bush will form a circular firing squad. Should Trump win both states, the race is over.
Trump was zinged after Iowa because his vote was less than polls had forecast. But in New Hampshire, the opposite happened. The RealClear average of New Hampshire polls pegged Trump at 29.5 percent. He got better than 34 percent of the actual vote.
(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...
It’s not over yet. Although Iowa was a tainted election, it still is in Cruz’s column. Had Trump won both Iowa outright and then this grand slam in New Hampshire, it would be pretty well over.
But NH left Bush, Rubio, Kasich, and Christie with a combined total of about 41%.
Those supporters will go to the one of the four remaining and not to Trump or Cruz is my opinion. The anger between Cruz and Trump might prevent their supporters from going to the other.
In that case, a 3 way race between Trump/Cruz/Unity Establishment Candidate (Probably Bush or Rubio), the game is on.
Trump or Cruz needs to find a way to reach out to those supporters OR they need to form a coalition.
One or the other.
The money quote: " If Jeb Bush is still running when the Florida primary occurs on March 15, he'll split the establishment vote with Marco Rubio. And Trump will win Florida. A similar situation will exist in Ohio if Kasich, the state's governor, hangs around. Kasich and Rubio and maybe Bush will form a circular firing squad. Should Trump win both states, the race is over."
Yeah, that's the ticket. Have the GOPe fight it out. And if Trump can preempt the GOP planned Convention shenanigans, it may be a done deal.
Something I haven't seen addressed is, just as in Nov, 14, how much of the Trump vote was a Vote Against Obama and all that he stands for.
All demographic American Rage at GOPe, Obama and Congress = Victory!
should be a lesson to these people to quit telling us what we are gonna do before we do it!
should be a lesson to these people to quit telling us what we are gonna do before we do it!
Kristol said that if Trump is the GOP nominee, he will encourage a Third Party run by a neocon. I'm sure that Lindsey Graham will be a big hit with voters when he's nominated as the official candidate of the Weekly Standard Party.
What will probably happen in fact is that Kristol and other neocons will support Hillary against Trump. With Hillary they can get 80% of their open borders, outsourcing, nation-building agenda. It's not quite a good as Jeb or Rubio, who would give them 100%, but Hillary is still closer to their party line than a populist like Trump.
Fiorina gives the establishment another 3-4%, and I'm guessing Carson's supporters will split 50-50 between establishment and anti-establishment when he finally has the sense to face reality and drop out of the race.
Christie and Fiorina will probably be out soon. Kasich's 2d place means he'll linger for another couple of weeks, but he may drop out before Super Tuesday after coming in last in SC/NV because Super Tuesday is mostly southern states where he has no chance. That leaves Jeb and Rubio to split the establishment vote, just as Trump and Cruz are splitting the anti-establishment vote. I don't see any of these 4 dropping out any time soon, their egos are too big and their funds are too deep. The only way it would happen is if the RNC basically orders either Jeb or Rubio to drop out to consolidate anti-establishment support. I could see them using this strongarm tactic with Rubio, but not with Jeb whose family is too powerful and well-connected.
What is this definition out there of “conservative”?
I’m not being confrontational, I really want to know? Not Trump’s past because most have pasts we’d like to forget, but his policies, where is he not “conservative?
Freddie “The Beetle” Barnes is right on this one. A crowded field is Trump’s best friend. I hope K-sick and Bush stick around at least til the SEC.
Every Republican candidate who finished first and second in Iowa and New Hampshire has won the presidential nomination.
I don’t get it. Trump finished 1st in IA and 2nd in NH.
I don’t like wanting this but Kristol’s smile... I kind of want it knocked violently off his face.
I’m not being confrontational, I really want to know? Not Trump’s past because most have pasts we’d like to forget, but his policies, where is he not conservative?
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The two big things for me are:
1. Small Government - I have never heard him utter one word about shrinking government. In fact, he talks about growing government.
2. Constitution - He doesn’t give the constitution a thought, with the exception of the 2nd amendment, and free speech when he used the word Pu**y.
I could list all the different issues I have with him, but it really comes down to those couple things.
I have said before that I will support him if he is the nominee, but I have no illusions about who he is.
“I can picture the Statue of Liberty, she says to Trump, You’re hired!
I can picture the Statue of Liberty, she says to Trump “ Why are you dumping me for a younger woman?
I won’t try to change your mind but this thing about Trump not mentioning the Constitution is just another Cruz talking point.
I’ve heard Trump talk about getting back to the Founding Father’s vision, preserving the Constitution. He’s said it several times.
“Not Trump’s past because most have pasts we’d like to forget, but his policies, where is he not “conservative?””
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I think people feel he comes up short of the title with relation to homosexuals, single payer healthcare, and eminent domain.
I know he’s not perfect, and I’m sure he’s gonna do things I disagree with. But I’m convinced he’ll get the muslim issue under control better than any of his competition, and for me that’s the top priority.
Agree totally-—and it’s a pathetic but predictable thing to watch them all EVER-so-slowly seem to come around to Trump’s side. In the early stages of this development, like right now, it takes the form of straightforward ,”objective” reporting on what the stats, votes, and polling tell them. It will take a lot more for them to “warm” to him, and become advocates. Trump will have to do that himself, as he gains the confidence he never really lacked, and begins to discard the personal slights against the likes of Bush,Cruz and Rubio, and basically act as if the rest of the field isn’t really there.I expect the Bush camp, which still thinks it has a chance, will explore every conceivable angle to attack and discredit Trump, thereby not allowing him to focus on policy. Trump should not take that bait , regardless of who it comes from. By now you’d think they ALL would know that the more they attack Trump, the stronger support for him will grow. It’s a beautiful thing to watch.
Whoever wins South Carolina will jump way out in front because the winner gets 29 of the 50 delegates PLUS a percentage of the remaining 21. Since Trump is already ahead in delegates by like 18 to 9 over Cruz....T could end up with 50 or more delegates and the next guy would be at maybe 15.
Leading 50 to 15 going into Nevada which is proportional and then Mega March with more and more .....Alabama Oklahoma Tennesse and Texas have semi-WinnerTakeAll set ups on March 1st. If Cruz doesn’t win Texas, he is toast and so it the GOPe, and even then it might just prolong the agony.
In the words of General Anthony McAuliffe: Nuts!
2 1/2 years later and still Kristol hasn’t learned much.
I still hate his slimy smile.
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