he Democrats are a mess.
It is estimated about 1/4 of them voted for Trump.
The others that were dissatisfied with Hillary and Sanders voted for Kasich.
I think you are o to something
I think that Hillary Dems were more likely to move to Republican voting. Not as intensely loyal as the new Sanders crowd. That may explain the 22% lead rather than the 15% that some pundits suggested and sounded right to me.