Given that New Hampshire is a northeastern, liberal, irreligious state, Donald Trump--a northeastern, liberal, irreligious candidate--OUGHT to do well there. If he gets 40+% there, it would be a big win for him. If he gets in the 35-39% range, he would meet expectations. 30-34%, a disappointment. And under 30%, it would be a loss, even if he finishes first.
When the field of candidates continues to thin--Christie, Carson, Fiorina--we'll see where their votes gravitate. Then Kasich and Bush will exit. It will come down to Trump, Cruz, and Rubio.
What is apparent is that two-thirds of Republicans do NOT want Trump. The problem is that all the non-Trump votes are divvied up among many.
We'll have a better idea of how things stand after March 1 and a MUCH better idea after March 15. It's still early.
LOL at 2/3 don’t want Trump.
I guess 80 percent don’t want Cruz?
Your analysis stinks.
Trump will be the nominee. No one else has his appeal and breadth of support.
But that’s been true since December.