Basically agree but Bush only has to mostly consolidate the GOPe vote and with Trump and Cruz splitting the non-establishment votes Bush wins the press headlines.
Cruz, Carson Trump are the anti establishment and over 50 percent of the vote. In a place like NH with crossover voters, it makes the winner hard to figure out, don’t you think.
When I was in Texas me and the wife listened to Rush crossed over hoping to prolong Hillary versus Obama so they could “claw eachothers eyes out”. Rush was right that would have been great and we both enjoyed doing mischief to the Dems as they have often done to the GOP.
Since we don’t know who all is voting for whom, I can’t bank on who gets what vote.
That is why I only think its Trump plus 12 lead. But no matter a Double Digit Trump win with so many well known and well funded campaigns would be BIG MO for Trump going into SC. Anyone who tells you a double digit win ain’t big is lying. Now if Bernie doesn’t win by 20% in his next door state with only 2 candidates that isn’t such a big win for Bernie.