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Honestly I don’t know who will come in second in NH... Assuming Trump performs and wins, 2nd and 3rd are kind of wide open... Bush, as much as folks don’t care for him has pretty much bet the farm on NH if he doesn’t perform in NH, then its pretty much all over for him, though he probably will stick around until Super Tuesday at least on paper.

Rubio I would think would be the most likely to get a bump from IA, as its really the establishment voting block that is fractured... anything that seems to give any one of them momentum will likely begin to bring others to them, in this case, Rubio’s stronger than expected showing in IA will likely gain him some points in NH... Enough to put him in 2nd or 3rd place? I don’t know.

If Trump under performs, Cruz will be the most likely beneficiary of that I would think, but again, as I have said time and again.. its politics so who the hell knows.

The danger for the outside type candidate, like Trump is that the establishment voters coalesce around a single candidate before they are able to leverage their momentum. I think Trump has to win the nomination outright at the polls, because if he or to a lesser extent Cruz head into the convention without a clear, overwhelming majority, the establishment will simply say EFFF the voters, and anoint the highest establishment player the candidate, even if it means they alienate 1/3 or 1/5 of their base in the process. Make no mistake, establishment republicans would far prefer to remain kingmakers even if that king is the candidate from the other party at the end, than lose their position and power letting someone like a Trump win the nomination.

Anyway, Back to the question, who is second? Well That’s the million dollar question isn’t it? Cruz and Rubio by latest polls seem to be 2 and 3, though the order is up in the air, but Christie, Kasich and Bush are in the hunt as well, while polling lower, are still in the top 6. Not from NH so I have no idea what is going on on the ground there, so frankly seeing Kasich polling in the top 5 anywhere just stuns me... but since I’m not on the ground in NH, don’t really know the whole story.

I will say if Cruz goes below third, that spells some trouble for him, even third place spells some trouble, long term for him. IF Rubio takes 2nd, or better, he’s certain to gain more establishment voters in coming states, as the establishment field shrinks... Trump and Cruz are really likely to only peel votes from each other, not that they won’t be able to get a few votes here and there as candidates drop out, but I am hard pressed to see say a Kasich voter moving to a Trump or a Cruz.

So, if I had to say top 3? Trump Cruz Rubio, with 2 and 3 being in either order. However not being on the ground there.. I think the most likely Establishment candidate to top out at this point is likely Rubio... but other candidates are polling higher there than nationally because they are betting the farm so to speak there, so Its not beyond the pair to think a Bush or Kasich or even Christie winds up winning the establishment vote unexpectedly.

For Rubio though, if this were to happen, this would force everyone to reevaluate, just as much as Trump not coming in first would. If Rubio can’t capitalize on his IA performance in NH, his argument for being the defacto establishment candidate goes up in smoke quickly.

Not being on the ground in NH its really hard to fully say what is going to happen, because for me sitting here in PA, its beyond flaberghasting that Kasich is polling in the top 5 there, but obviously he is.

IF Cruz finishes outside of the top 3 as well, this will be a negative for his campaign, because for him not to be in the top three means he’s lost support to Trump on one of the Establishment politicians and that’s not a good thing long term.

So, I think if Trump underperforms Optics Change drastically... ALso If Cruz or Rubio miss the top 3, the optics change significantly... If however all perform as currently expected, and you get a Trump with Cruz and Rubio as the top 3 (order of the 2 and 3 interchangeable) the long term optics only change in that it becomes hard for any other establishment candidate to argue that Rubio isn’t going to be the defacto establishment candidate.

Time will tell.