Posted on 02/04/2016 10:23:44 AM PST by LS
On the night of the Iowa caucus events, I was getting pinged from all sides about what was happening. Unfortunately, some of us still work for a living (joke). I was on the road for an assignment and did not have access to a reliable computer or wireless. I was not "hiding" form critics, and I wasn't ignoring those of a like mind.
Finally I can address what has happened, and I don't think anyone will be happy.
The obvious:
*The polls were horribly wrong. Only the Emerson Poll got it right, but I think that was a total accident. The "gold standard" Des Moines Register is discredited; Nate Silver (thank God) is discredited. So, for myself, until proven otherwise through SEVERAL accurate polls, I'm paying no heed to these. That means we don't know if Trump is ahead in NH or nationally. Likewise, Cruzers, it blows out of the water the notion that "Cruz does better than Trump against Hillary." We don't know now, good or bad.
*While initially Trump had a classy statement of congratulations to Cruz, then he accepted full blame for not "taking Iowa seriously enough," he quickly fell into the "Cruz cheated" mantra.
Politics is vicious and I have no problem with any tricks you can get away with. Period. Moreover, it's over. You absolutely cannot fight the last battle. Every second that Trump spends on this is not only wasted time, but shows he isn't properly focused on NH and beyond. (I'll discuss the "Carson tweet/voter shaming in a minute, but not as some of my fellow Trumpers think).
Whatever happened with Carson/Cruz, the biggest takeaway of this caucus and the biggest negative for Trump is that his strength---his business acumen and organization---took a severe hit. I understand Iowa's unique religious and grass-roots character. But for someone whose reputation is based on organizing, cutting costs and getting things done, it doesn't look good. The story today from the always questionable National Journal that he still has not taken the advice of his campaign team to expand his ground operation in NH is distressing. Trump has been claiming this entire campaign (with experience to support it) that he will "put the right people" in the right positions. Iowa is an inauspicious start. Word is that Cruz has built a powerful similar grassroots network in Tennessee---another Bible Belt state where he'll do well. How The Donald responds to this challenge to his business acumen, not his political instincts, will be critical.
*Carsongate. As I said before, this is politics. I don't know who did what, and as Rush said, we can't prove that any number of voters had their votes changed. The notion that "just four votes per precinct" would give Trump the win is undeniable and just like saying that just one more touchdown a quarter would have given the Patriots the victory over the Broncos. But Cruzers, don't think this doesn't hurt Cruz and his image. He has built an image early on, well, being "St. Ted." He is the "pure" candidate, the one with God on his side. These kinds of shenanigans, combined with the "voter shaming" letter, are minor things ... but they do add up. Cruz can afford one or two of these, but if it ever gets the point that he is viewed as a hypocrite---as opposed to just "a conservative" (or even a "radical right winger"), that charge will have legs.
*The biggest winner---and yet, from another perspective, biggest loser---is Rubio. THE GOPe'S GOAL IS TO BAIT AND SWITCH RUBIO FOR CRUZ AFTER STOPPING TRUMP. Now, Cruzers, I do not think Ted intends that to happen (nor does Trump), and it's not a "conspiracy" between the two men. This is totally "strategerized" by the GOPe, knowing that one on one, Rubio cannot beat either Cruz or Trump. (I would say that to date, Trump's biggest mistake was not in skipping the Iowa debate, but in July and August, when he had Rubio in the grave, not burying him then).
But how is Rubio a loser? He exceeded expectations in Iowa and seems to have (ugh) "momentum." Except ... of ALL the candidates, Rubio not only had money and had the most campaign experience at this level, but had the entire GOPe, National Review, ALL the bloggers and the entire GOP establishment shilling for him (even attacking Jeb for wanting to stay in the race). If Rubio, with all those advantages, couldn't win, that does not speak well for his future chances. Trump may have lacked a "ground game" in Iowa, but Rubio had no excuse.
In short, we are right where the Cruzers hoped we would be: and IA win preventing a Trump landslide. But we're also where the GOPe hoped we'd be, because remember, now matter how unlikely you think it to be, THEY think they will take Cruz out easily---more easily than Trump. Even if Trump wins NH, now, nothing will be proved until a real one-on-one Trump/Cruz match occurs in the neutral battlefield of South Carolina.
What are you smoking?
Or consolidate around Trump.
From your mouth to Gods ears.
WTF has Rubio EVER done, to deserve being POTUS, his resume is shorter than even Obama’s.
I said it’s still Trump or Cruz for me.
I think after New Hampshire, it will be the Time For Choosing between Trump or Cruz.
Trump is a loose canon, not stable.
Not even reliably conservative.
If he gets the nomination, how far left will he veer to play to the broader audience.
He popped his balloon the last couple days.
Why won’t Trump attack Rubio? Why is this dog not barking?
If Rubio is out, that suits me just fine. Cruz is the choice for all rational conservatives.
One state, forty-nine more to go. The importance of Iowa is way overstated. Get back to me ten states from now. The picture will firm up by then.
Thank you.
Agree with every word. Wish I had written it.
I am voting for Trump Tuesday. I was ready to vote in July 2015.
But, if the emperor is naked, I’m sorry I didn’t see it. And if it’s Little Marco who points it out, I’ll be even more sorry.
Yes. Trump midday rally today was excellent, on topic with issues, and clean, no trashing other candidates (at least not directly). I think Trump is playing the political game very well and is running the media and other candidates around to his narrative. Look what everyone was doing for the last couple of days, running around off of Trump’s statements.
Excellant analysis.
Your points on Trump are well taken. Trump doing things his way didn’t work in Iowa but most of us expected Cruz to win there for reasons you point out. And you’re right, Cruz fans will not see the light until the guy is horribly discredited because they see him as a religious leader more than a politician. Baring a Jim Bakker episode they’ll ride him straight into the ground.
NH and SC will tell the tale on Trump. Fight on!
Maybe Carson could sue over Iowa, two ineligible candidates put on the GOP ballot.
“Rubio > Trump. If they take Trump out and replace him with Rubio, at least we won’t have a fascist nationalist with zealous, irrational minions as president.”
Sheesh! Give it a rest already! Rubio IS the establishment’s boy!
Dude that was not wet in the slightest.
I think you are right.
I read the whole story yesterday.
The picture it paints is not a guy who's bi- or secretly gay (he's probably neither), but a guy who is so ambitious that when he was scuffling and hustling in late 1980s Miami to get one foot on the ladder, that he would do ANYTHING to get ahead.
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