First, something may be “not plausible” - but that assertion does not make the occurrence not possible.
Second, the “polls” were wrong on just about every assertion - so quoting the polls to back up an argument that favors the same polls is illogical.
Third, whether using Rove’s speculated 4 vote differential or your spread of 11.5 votes for the 17,000 total, neither may be said to be true to reality; since such even distributions do not actually occur in the real world.
Other than knowing the actual individual vote totals for each candidate at each precinct, we have no way of knowing how many votes were persuaded from Carson to Cruz, or to any other candidate. Unless the voters themselves were all going to come forth and state whether they changed their vote and to whom did they switch - and we both know that will not happen. Basically, the entire fiasco is made moot by this fact. There will be no law suit by Trump or Carson, just as there will be no do-over caucus. If anything is done, it will be a decision by the FEC. And, somehow, I get the sense they are not going to touch this.
Every one of your points is spot on. Splitting the votes for Carson to average 11 ? So what ? Cruz averages just 30 per.
And there are interactive by pricinct maps where you can see every vote total for each candidate. There’ll be places where little is gained by tampering and others where you’d get a snowballing effect.
Bottom line. Cruz embellished the reports to give the impression Carson was announcing he was out. And continued to do so after they knew the reports were wrong.
Whoa. Slow down, Slim. You missed a curve.
That was not my "spread" of 11.5 votes. I was quoting yet someone else who came up with that somewhat artificially created figure.
Yet the 4 votes per precinct methodology was somewhat arbitrary and thus artificial also.
But I see that you did think about it, further;
Bold font added to that last portion by my own hand, if you'll allow.
Or to any other candidate...
You uncovered one of the flaws in simply assigning 4 votes per precinct went from Carson, to Cruz.
If persons were supporting Carson rather than Cruz initially, what else is being ignored (while it was being assumed by Rove that Carson's supporters would naturally go to Cruz, fully across the board) is that Carson supporters may, in part, been supportive of Carson as alternative to Cruz whom they may possibly have already not liked.
So I do agree with you also in the beginning portions of the above portion of your comment, quoted above.
From there on, going by the general direction of the remainder of your comments, this thread, and for the last few weeks, we often part company...