Rove was positively giddy tonight!
Karl [paraphrased]: IF just 4 Carson voters out of every precinct in Iowa switched their vote to Cruz, Cruz wins.
IF those voters had not switched their votes, Trump wins.
That is presuming Carson had that many votes to begin with which would be way higher than his polling average.
You mean 9000 votes switched - more votes than all except four candidates? That would chance a lot of races over the years.
Rove's spiel is from the lies, damn lies, and statistics category.