I dunno. Bush, Kasich and Christy voters would naturally go to Rubio. The longer they remain the the race, it will be at the expense of Rubio. Trump, Cruz and Rubio appear to be the most viable at the moment.
Rand Paul is out, which overall will be a boost for Cruz, and maybe to a lesser extent Rubio and of little help Trump.
The longer that the GOPe candidates remain in the running, I think that it will hurt Rubio the most. I would hope that Bush and Christy will get a boost through this.
The game is not over.
As far as Hillary is concerned, polling indicates she would be beaten by Rubio, Cruz and Trump in that order.
If this were still a representative Constitutional Republic and elections were not as corrupted as the rest of the institutions in this country - your analysis would have merit.
But we are no longer a Republic, and everything is corrupted beyond redemption of repair, and what we see is what happens for the purposes of placating the public into accepting what the Rulers impose on the populace.
Everything that is being done, is for that purpose. Which is why everything is political, same as it was in the Soviet Union, which is what we have been fundamentally transformed into.