Posted on 02/03/2016 2:29:45 PM PST by GodGunsGuts
On Wednesday morning, two days after losing the Iowa Republican caucus to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, Donald Trump accused the Texas senator of stealing the election. According to Trump, Cruz’s campaign committed “fraud” by sending direct mail pieces to lapsed Republican voters and by spreading public reports that pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson might be dropping out of the race.
On the night of the Iowa caucuses, Ben Carson accused Ted Cruz's campaign of spreading false rumors about his campaign suspending its bid for the GOP nomination. Cruz’s people had been pushing a report that originated with CNN, which reported that Carson was planning on going home to Florida after the caucus instead of traveling to New Hampshire or South Carolina.
With his poor showing and diminishing numbers, it was not outlandish to deduce from this that Carson was toying with the idea of dropping out. Turns out he wasn't. It turns out Carson only planned to briefly return home so he could grab some "fresh clothes." Part of the incident can be chalked up to the ambiguous comments coming from Carson's amateurish campaign and the other part to Cruz’s campaign doing what campaigns tend to do: push narratives and stories that help them win elections.
But unless new evidence emerges, Trump's accusations of fraud and illegality are as absurd as his calls for a new election. Moreover, even if we believed Trump's charges, under no scenario does he win Iowa.
Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 3, 2016
Let’s say deception was afoot. Where is the evidence that the CNN story or the Cruz tactic changed the dynamics of the race at all? Carson's RealClearPolitics polling average was 7.7 percent-with some of the better polling putting him at 9 percent. One poll even had him at 10 percent. He finished the night with 9.3 percent of the vote. This seems right, and probably a little better than expected. Carson's numbers had taken a nosedive since peaking on Nov. 1st, and there was no evidence that a Carson surge was underway. Quite the opposite, in fact.
Even if we concede, for the sake of discussion, that Carson lost two or even three thousands voters to the rumor (which is pushing it), nothing changes. Even if Carson finished at 10 percent or 12 percent, the political outcome is the same. To believe Trump was cheated out of the race, you have to accept that Carson lost more than six thousand supporters, and all of them went to Cruz. Well, Carson pulled in a little over 17,300 votes.
In truth, it’s far more likely that any Carson defecting voters would have dispersed somewhat evenly among the other major candidates. Let's go big, though, and say Carson lost 15,000 supporters. According to a not-very-scientific NBC poll in early January, Cruz and Trump were tied as the second choice of Carson supports, at 26 percent each. Trump would have been in the same place. In a more scientific and more recent Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, Trump was tied with Marco Rubio as second choice. Trump's favorability tracked way below that of every other candidate except Chris Christie. Considering the Rubio surge, it's far more plausible that Carson's lost votes would have gone to Rubio and pushed Trump into third place.
Now, I realize nothing is going to change the minds of Trump and his fans. Believing they were cheated out of Iowa is almost a philosophical necessity. The story helps Trump continue to latch onto to polls as unvarnished Truth and dismiss the idea that he has ever really lost at anything. But even if we believe Cruz cheated, none of the outcomes lead to a Trump victory.
I’m also suspicious of his psalm-singing father who started out as a Castro supporter. Also, his Canadian mother looks like a prison matron.
Do you really believe he just found out he was a Canadian citizen? What a poor memory this supposed genius has.
It was intended as humor, yes. Factual, but funny. :-)
"Your Cheating Heart"
The same flier was used during last republican primary election cycle. Nobody bitched then. If it did have any effect at all, it simply prompted people to go vote. Its not like Cruz was urging them not to vote. Trump should be thanking Cruz. Presumably at least some of those voters that received the mailers were Trump supporters. If it weren’t for Cruz’s mailer, Trump would have had zero GOTV ground game.
As far as Carson goes, poll better and a false rumor that you are dropping out won’t be so plausible.
If you guys think this stuff is hardball, you are in for a world of hurt in the general election. You’ll be wishing the Clinton campaign would stick to threatening mailers and silly rumors.
Ok! Then I’ll write your name down and remember the next time you complain about how Obama is cheating the American people out of their rights and turning this country into a basket case. I’ll remind you to go play Candyland because politics isn’t beanbag.
Actually, no one cares about Iowa anymore.
You're right ... because we would expect it from a Dem ... we don't expect it from a Cruz.
Mathematically impossible
Your wrath is, in my humble opinion, misplaced. Carson made a statement to a reporter that, esentially, he was leaving Iowa, heading home and taking a break. CNN ran with it. The Cruz and Rubio campaigns also ran with it when they saw it on CNN.
Carson should really be saying, “I guess I could have been more clear about that.”
Your wrath is, in my humble opinion, misplaced. Carson made a statement to a reporter that, esentially, he was leaving Iowa, heading home and taking a break. CNN ran with it. The Cruz and Rubio campaigns also ran with it when they saw it on CNN.
Carson should really be saying, “I guess I could have been more clear about that.”
Tell that to Donald Trump and his legal team.
Cruz-Ooze! I like it.
Why would any decent person run for office in this whacked-out climate?
No, Cruz should have been more clear about it. A little phone call might have helped but then...it would have cleared it up, wouldn’t it?
You’d be wise to assume public communication from every campaign is calculated, part of a strategy to win.
Twist, BS, make excuses as you described CRUZ.
True, Cruz cheated and he needs to be called out on this before it gets out of hand. Cruz cannot be allowed to try cheating or any other tricks again. Trump understands this as is going after him big time.
Then people got inside and heard the Cruz disinformation/slash/dirty trick that Carson was dropping out, don't waste your vote, etc.
So about ~25% of people who were going to vote for Carson switched to Cruz. And that was the margin of difference and the reason why the polls were wrong about Trump winning.
This article conveniently hangs its hat on polls when they are needed to make one point, then ignores them when they don't support their point.
Yep. The evil Cruz campaign. Hillary would never stoop to such tactics. If Carson’s campaign cant withstand a silly rumor mill he should drop out of the race right now. And if Trump can be beaten by a stupid mailer urging people to get out and vote, he’s even more of a joke than most of us already thought he was.
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