My prediction is that in 10 years. China's per capita GDP will be up roughly 60% from what it is today. This is probably Year 1 of China's version of the Asian Financial Crisis of the late 90's. I base my 10-year projection on South Korea's progress during a 10-year period starting in 1996, in which time frame Korea's per capita income went up about 60%.
In the worst case, Chinese incomes will track Thailand's, which went up 10% in that decade. If this second scenario materializes in China, I think we can expect the same kind of unrest that has wracked Thailand for the past decade or so with Party factions squaring off against and scapegoating each other. I really don't see any foreign adventurism while they're whaling away at each other.
As to the effect of Trump's 45% tariff on China, I don't really see it having that much of an impact. A big chunk of the US trade deficit comes from transfer pricing that US corporations use to avoid US taxes, not value-added in China. I expect we'll find out soon enough, if the Donald is elected to office. Assuming the tariff is targeted at China alone, China's neighbors will be elated. It will definitely improve our relationships with countries in the region, as their economies benefit.
You could move there and be part of it all! Why not leave now!
“Where do you see the Chinese economy in 10 years?”
There is a very wide range of possible outcomes. Political developments could be huge - a new cultural revolution or an overthrow of the communist party. International developments could be huge - war, depressions, booms, boycotts, or sanctions. Technological developments could be huge - robotic job replacement, industrial scale human cloning, lower energy costs from nuclear and solar.
Most likely, per capita GDP will be up everywhere in ten years, but most likely China will no longer be at the forefront of high growth rates, and will likely have a somewhat lower relative economic position, as compared to its Asian neighbors, India and the West.
Unlike the Asian financial crisis, China has real economic adjustments to make (Ghost cities and zombie factories) in addition to the financial adjustments of currency devaluation, excessive debt, and capital flight.
The bottom line for the next ten years in China is that growth rates should slow significantly, and they could well suffer a “lost decade” of near zero net growth. There could well be a significant up front crash if the government runs out of real money (possible in a year or two, if things go badly).
Ultimately, China has excellent human capital, who will produce despite what the Party does to them. Given good policies, they could be like Poland - taking their adjustments up front for two hard years, and then being the fastest growing economy in Europe for two decades. With bad policies they could suffer depression-like mass unemployment in the cities, leading to unprecedented unrest.
Only time will tell, but kicking the can down the road on adjustment is probably no longer an option for China. People are voting with their feet and their dollars.
Because of the excessive control of the communist Party, economic projections are unreliable - the system is too rigged, too subject to the whims of a few individuals. The lower growth projection is assuming that they enact wise management from this bad position. If they react badly to developments, they could knock the floor out from under the economy.
There is no plausible case that I have seen for China to return to the high growth rates of the last couple of decades, over the next decade.