Ah, I get it. The polls are the word of law when they support Trump (such as NH). Notsomuch otherwise.
Nope. I put no stock in them.
With Iowa, it's kinda funny that Cruz led month after month until a week before the caucuses where a few showed Trump leading. All the while, historically, we knew the polls have been widely wrong.
Iowa simply stuck with voting for who they want as their pastor and not their president.
When given a choice to vote for President, they have picked Obama the last two times and barely voted for Bush over Kerry (49.9% to 49.2%). I would put money down now that if it's Cruz, Trump, or Rubio vs Clinton, Iowa goes for Clinton.