pick and choose your stats. This poll also had Trump ahead by 15%, which turned out to be wrong.
If this poll is wrong there, why are they right here ?
>> This poll also had Trump ahead by 15%, which turned out to be wrong. <<
It was a national poll, not an Iowa one. As much hope as I have for Cruz, I am under no illusion that he can beat Trump nationally without narrowing down the not-Trump voters.
>> If this poll is wrong there, why are they right here ? <<
If they were wrong, it would be that they polled too many Trump supporters. While it’s possible that they could sample a simply polarized group, the opposite is likely true, if anything. The simplest guess is that their sample was too strongly leaning towards Trump.