Trump winning Iowa was always a long shot, I fully expected someone else to win Iowa.
Iowa picked the most Evangelical, as it traditionally has.
Trump however had a very strong showing, especially in a format that is designed to support the traditional/establishment politician over the outsider.
Rubio as well, clearly was the candidate the establishment voters supported in IA as well.
Can Cruz change the calculus before NH in a week? Time will tell, but I do fully expect Trump to run the table now that primaries are all traditional walk into a voting booth and cast your ballot.
I don’t think IA changed anything in the long game, but its politics, nothing is ever certain.
I think Rubio doing as well as he did in IA is also surprising and scare. It shows the GOPe voter, at least in IA doesn’t care about illegal immigration, or at least doesn’t care enough to actually punish a politician for selling out the country.
If Trump&Cruz can’t combine for over 50% of the vote, We wind up with Rubio... I don’t think this is a risk outside of IA, but time will tell.
At this point I think Trump takes NH by a wide margin next week.