Big deal. Trump’s lead is based on winning 40-22 among first-timers. Cruz wins among previous caucusers. Registration data shows the first-timers aren’t likely to show up: So far, they haven’t bothered to register. Yes, they can register today. But based on the fact they HAVEN’T, this looks so much like the huge lead Romney had among first-timers.
We’ll know tomorrow morning, dangus.
I think Trump is in the lead. As you suggest, turnout is key.
There are some 80% or so of registered voters that don’t caucus. Thus there
are lots of potential if they can be enticed to get to their caucus. The big
question is ‘will they go’? We’ll see around 9pm tonight.