I wouldn’t be surprised if Ted finished third: IA people like to throw in an occasional jolt to the process. He has done all he could, I suppose, but he started making bad errors with the preceding debate and the aftermath.
Cruz is paying for assuming his Canadianess would not be an issue. Even if it were 95% certain (it’s not) that he’s eligible why would anyone on the fence want to take that chance?
His relationship with Beck will sink him