Posted on 01/24/2016 9:56:04 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
With only a few days until the Iowa caucuses, the political world is buzzing with anticipation for the presidential nomination process to go beyond polls and speeches to actual voting and caucusing.
Paying attention to the difference between these two types of processes is important because caucuses attract a very different set of citizens -- more ideological, more consistent and more partisan participants. We think this difference will matter.
So far, people have focused on Donald Trump's unexpectedly strong showing in the polls and on tensions between "outsider" candidates (like Trump) and more traditional "establishment" candidates. On the Democratic side, the question is how the expected front-runner Hillary Clinton will fare against an insurgent campaign from self-declared democratic socialist Bernie Sanders. Now, the critical question for all of these campaigns is how to get their supporters to show up.
As illustrated in the most recent CNN poll, different assumptions about the set of participants make a big difference. For instance, in the Iowa caucuses, Trump's lead disappears when only considering poll respondents who have previously caucused....
(Excerpt) Read more at gantdaily.com ...
The party has clarified the nomination requirements for candidates at the convention.
Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of ... delegates from ... 8 or more states ... [T]he affirmative written support ... shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention ... prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination .... [Rule 40(b)]
And yep, bookmarking the site.
OTOH, Trump will probably win N.Y.,CT.,Mass.,N.H., Pa., N.J.,and Florida, which is 7 right there.
Forget delegate count right now; it's winning a non-proportional state OUTRIGHT, just to be eligible to be nominated!
What you’re looking for is rule 40, and it is in the quoted site.
That's better than not knowing about it! ;^)
“Hush Bimbo” Must be a Savage listener. Don’t remember Rush, or Levin being against Newt. I was really disappointed when Romney and the Virginia GOP was able to keep him off the ballot. I have been very disappointed in the Obama’s destruction of NASA’s Manned space program and Newt really excited me with his vision of a revitalized NASA program. Would like to hear Cruz or Trump’s take on NASA and restoring America to its former glory (No more depending on the Russians for launch)
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Tweeting may be where the future is, but caucuses are the present in Iowa. Did anyone see The Good Wife episode about the Iowa Democrat caucus vote? Is the Republican system the same?
In case you missed it, read post 61, this thread. Another poster found it and posted the text. You are correct.
Ahh thank you for your careful investigation. Much appreciated.
That rule says a majority of delegates from 8 states. Technically that could be the majority of delegates from a proportional state like Iowa or NH.
Also, thought you might be interested in:
Rush played coy on bloody thursday and even added wood to the fire while pretending to straddle the fence. He also gave his microphone over to Mark Steyn, whose contempt for Newt was palpable. It wasn't until after Newt was gone did Hush Bimbo come out and start lamenting the inaccurate and false stories pushed by Drudge/Romney on bloody thursday, though on the day itself he had an entirely different tune.
Hush was a Romney guy that nomination cycle, which is why he did his best to protect Santorum from criticism despite how vapid a candidate he was.
NO...the rule is OUTRIGHT, NOT “majority” of delegates.
That’s not what I’m reading.
Instead of the five states a candidate had to win in 2012, a candidate had to win at least eight in 2016. And adding to that, a candidate could no longer skirt by with just plurality control of the the delegation. The rules adopted in Tampa for 2016 upped that to a majority. The raising of the number of states is not really of much consequence. But bumping that control threshold up from just one more delegate than your next nearest competitor to having to control half of the delegates in a state’s delegation plus one is a potentially significant change.
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-real-import-of-rule-40-in-2016.html?m=1
We’ll find out at the Convention; perhaps.
Maybe. As that first article I posted points out, the Rules committee can certainly change things.
Now, back to the discussion of delegate organization. Do you have some insight into Trump’s campaign to secure favorable delegates to the convention? I would be genuinely interested to hear about it. As I said, I only have insight into the process in 3 states, and only small portions of two of those.
I sure do, and Brit Hume lost me forever when he trashed Newt the night of his big win in South Carolina. Mark Levin was all Santorum all the time. Stopped listening to Rush after he gave Newt a good thrashing re the PAC video re Bain Capitol.
It isn't winner-take-all until after March 15.
A brokered convention seems possible, and it's hard for me to imagine supporters of other candidates wanting to form a coalition with Trump.
You mean like the ligit questions about obamas citizenship? Somehow he still managed to win. Twice.
I found this article full of horrible quotes from Trump's longtime lawyer threatening to sue and bankrupt a reporter who was going to write a negative story on Trump last year. The bullying tactics on display here are outrageous, utterly shameful, disgusting and un-American.
"I will make sure that you and I meet one day while we're in the courthouse. And I will take you for every penny you still don't have. And I will come after your Daily Beast and everybody else that you possibly know," Cohen said. "So I'm warning you, tread very f*cking lightly, because what I'm going to do to you is going to be f*cking disgusting. You understand me?"
Absolutely incorrect. Cruz is up 15 points in a new poll. Are you the same guy I caught in another thread claiming Trump is winning Texas or is this some kind of empty viral hype going around?
And if the rule is accurately quoted above, "majority of ... delegates from ... 8 or more states ..."
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