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The Long Game: A Guide to Counting Delegates
The Weekly Standard ^ | 02-01-2016 | Jay Cost

Posted on 01/24/2016 3:49:17 PM PST by brothers4thID

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To: FourPeas

Perhaps, in a nutshell, the nomination process selected by the GOP is the problem.
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The fact that so many red States still have open primaries doesn’t help, either. Lots of Dems cast votes for the weak Pub candidates they know they can beat in the general.


41 posted on 01/24/2016 7:40:37 PM PST by octex
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To: Mr Apple

And total doofus Jeb should head on out to the swamps now and resume catching frogs.
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It’s what “happy turtles” do! ...(ref. to GEICO ads)


42 posted on 01/24/2016 7:46:55 PM PST by octex
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To: brothers4thID

The article was interesting and again shows that this race can ebb and tide regardless of the current projections....and or the popularity of those in the lead.


43 posted on 01/24/2016 7:48:41 PM PST by caww
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To: gg188

BS they would rather have Trump.


44 posted on 01/24/2016 7:49:04 PM PST by RightLady (It's gotta be Cruz)
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To: octex

lol


45 posted on 01/24/2016 8:39:11 PM PST by Mr Apple
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To: agrarianlady
Minnesota is also the only state that voted for Mondale over Reagan in Reagan's 49-state landslide in 1984.

Nice try, though.

46 posted on 01/24/2016 9:37:49 PM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: brothers4thID

I find it stunning that California is given so many delegate votes given the fact the there is ZERO chance that CA will vote Republican in the general election.

It appears that the Republican Establishment has designed this process to give us another weak candidate that provides no real difference from the Democrat opponent.

States that traditionally vote Democrat should be given less delegates, not more, to minimize their impact on candidate choice, since their states will have no positive impact in the general election. And in my opinion, MA, CA, IL, CT, MN, and NY should each be given one delegate (just to be fair).


47 posted on 01/25/2016 4:44:35 AM PST by PTBAA
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To: goldstategop
"Trump is up by double digits."

In the head-to-heads against Hillary and Sanders, Trumps numbers are pathetically low, compared to Cruz, and especially to Rubio (in Minnesota, Rubio is 14 points above Trump's percentage vs. Hillary, Trump losing by 5)

And as to the early wrap-up, this year was structured differently (long before Trump got in), to give later states a bigger say. All the early states are proportional. Whoever wins Iowa will get MAYBE +5 delegates out of the deal over the 2nd place guy, probably less, no one will get a majority of delegates. New Hampshire ditto. Then there will be 2,400 more delegates to be selected. This will likely go into April at least, unless there is a total meltdown of 2 of the top 4 candidates.

48 posted on 01/25/2016 6:56:04 PM PST by cookcounty ("I was a Democrat until I learned to count" --Maine Gov. Paul LePage)
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To: brothers4thID
" until March 15 every contest is proportional. Trump could win 45% in every contest until Florida (he won’t, by the way.) and still not have enough delegates to sew up the nomination.

Bingo, with the earlies being proportional and the later primaries winner-take-all, it will be a late-decided contest, which was the idea when they made this re-do of the system 2 years ago. Too many "late states" had no say, and it just didn't seem fair. With the crowded field, those early "proportional states" have even less significance. Trumpers , even if they win, are going to get mighty impatient watching their delegate numbers go up so slowly.

49 posted on 01/25/2016 7:14:15 PM PST by cookcounty ("I was a Democrat until I learned to count" --Maine Gov. Paul LePage)
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To: agrarianlady
Net Favorability:

Rubio +3
Cruz -12
Hillary -17
Jeb -38
Trump -40

This is where I don't think most Trump supporters see the massive tank trap in their road. It's not as if this will improve when Trump gains name recognition, he's already (more than) topped out in name recognition.

50 posted on 01/25/2016 7:20:32 PM PST by cookcounty ("I was a Democrat until I learned to count" --Maine Gov. Paul LePage)
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To: cookcounty
Bingo, with the earlies being proportional and the later primaries winner-take-all,

Actually, there are only about 12 states that have true winner-take-all contests. Most have some type of hybrid system, with the state level delegates going to the overall winner, and the delegates for each Congressional district going to the winner of the district. So It could be very difficult for either candidate to get to 1236 delegates before the convention, especially since almost 200 delegates will go to the convention as unbound delegates, not committed to any candidate.

51 posted on 01/25/2016 7:23:27 PM PST by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: PTBAA

Democrat states DO get less delegates relative to their population. Case in point: Colorado, with 5X the population of Wyoming (and 3 or 4X as many Republican voters), gets 37 delegates, Wyoming almost as many, 29.


52 posted on 01/25/2016 7:27:01 PM PST by cookcounty ("I was a Democrat until I learned to count" --Maine Gov. Paul LePage)
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To: goldstategop
The GOP establishment cannot face the fact that he will become the nominee and it will all be over before March.

You do know that it is impossible for Trump to be much more than 15-20 delegates ahead by the beginning of March, right? Even if Trump got 50% of the vote in all of the first 4 states, he wouldn't have more than 65 delegates which is less than 5% of the total needed. Even if he got 50% of the vote in all of the states prior to March 15th, he wouldn't have enough delegates to get the nomination.

53 posted on 01/25/2016 7:31:53 PM PST by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: CA Conservative

That poster probably did not read the actual article.


54 posted on 01/25/2016 8:35:13 PM PST by brothers4thID ("We've had way too many Republicans whose #1 virtue is "I get along great with Democrats".")
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To: cookcounty

Thank you for correcting my misconception. I guess the GOP is slightly less bonkers than I thought.


55 posted on 01/26/2016 1:19:53 PM PST by PTBAA
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To: goldstategop

The GOPe has already made peace with this possibility and are reaching out to trump to begin to cut deals with him. It is Sen. Cruz that they fear and loath, as it is he who will end their crony capitalism, and thus, their gravy train.


56 posted on 01/26/2016 1:27:55 PM PST by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
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To: sitetest

Isn’t Cruz connected via his spouse to Goldman Sachs, the vampire squid of crony capitalism?


57 posted on 01/26/2016 1:29:04 PM PST by nascarnation
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