1. In general endorsements mean very little. Iowans really don't care who Sarah Palin or Glenn Beck support. Some Iowan activist endorsements may slightly matter as they have contacts that can be used. Only endorsement that may matter is if Chuck Grassley endorsed someone. He will not. He is running for reelection so he will show up at all the candidates rallys once to introduce them. He has already done one of Trumps, he will do the others.
2. Iowans ignore polls. We take this process very seriously and even if we are the only person caucusing for that candidate we generally stick with that candidate.
3. Iowans like to make their own decision. Most people who caucus go hear multiple candidates. Again we take this seriously. That's why it is dangerous to assume big rallies point to big leads. Maybe this year will be different but in general having many small events in smaller counties tend to result in better caucus results. Having said that, if you have 50 people at a Des Moines event probably indicate you are today.
4. The notion that half the people make up their minds in the last week is true, but to a point. Most people have their decision down to two or three candidates. They have already eliminated most.
5. Who has the most impact on late deciders? Friends and family. I will give you an anecdote. Again this is just my small circle of friends. Friday night I convinced a Carson supporter to support Cruz. Today at church had 4 Trump supporters agree to support Cruz. This week I will start reaching out to other friends. I realize every campaign has supporters that change minds, I am just giving you anecdotal examples of how fluid this race is.
I really wish this forum was a debate on policy rather than a debate on personal attacks.
Nice that you conveniently left out there will be 1000’s of new voters
show up. Something quite different than the past.
Iowa hasn’t picked a winner in a very long time.
Iowa has gotten more attention than ever before.
Iowa will get it right this year and pick the winner.