It all comes down to the weather and voter turn out.
Agreed, “weather” (I know, it's not “whether”) or not N.H. wants a populist semi-conservative who likely WOULD get elected, or a staunch conservative who's LESS-electable and would have an uphill battle to the end. I guess we're better off in either case, though given the eggshell opposition this time around (the Dims and their weak candidates), I'd rather see someone step up to the plate I align with more closely and swing away at the chance (likelihood) it's our time to get a strong conservative to home plate. I'm resigned to either outcome (but certainly not the 3rd outcome of a Dim doing a three-peat)