Why 2016 GOP Campaign Is over -- Donald Trump Has Won

At a store recently, I overheard a middle-aged woman shouting on her cell phone while marching down an aisle.

The woman exclaimed: "Forget about that! Trump will get in there and clean the place out!'

It gave me my biggest laugh of the week. I had no idea what the woman and the other person were discussing, but I wasn't surprised by her assertion.

Polls show many Americans are angry and frustrated - from their skyrocketing health insurance premiums and their inability to keep their doctors under ObamaCare - to stagnant wages, the $19-trillion federal debt, immigration and terrorism, and other dysfunctional foreign policies.

So as I thought about the humorous store incident, other developments and historical events, I started thinking about the 2016 presidential election.

My conclusion: The Republican race is over - if the establishment Republicans wake up and smell the coffee - and accept that Donald Trump holds the only ticket to success. Further, he has already won the election.

However, this also means he won't suffer the same fate as former Gov. Mitt Romney, an astute businessman, but too tepid in responding to disingenuous political attacks. Although leading President Barack Obama by 5 percentage points in the June 2012 polls, Mr. Romney lost because he failed to respond to any attacks that summer.

Mr. Romney was ostensibly defensive about his wealth. Not Mr. Trump. He sees it as a marketing strength and is known for his acerbic responses to political attacks. He crushes his opponents.

With the overwhelming problems facing the U.S. and world, the campaigns demonstrate a lot of voters would rather cope with occasional dubious behavior from a patriotic American than a demagogic socialist as president.

They feel any of the Republican candidates would be preferable over Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sec. Hillary Clinton or any other Democrat should she be indicted.

But not necessarily in an order of priorities, here are the eight things that have led to my sense of Mr. Trump's odds for success:

1. Mr. Trump has softened his sarcasm. Notice he hasn't been sarcastic lately with insane, personal attacks. In some ways, he's softened his tone.

2. Only Mr. Trump understands retail marketing. He's employing classic marketing principles:

A) His campaign slogan is in the proven range of three to five words, "Make America Great Again!' Contrast that with his competitors - none has positive, memorable slogans.

B) He repeats his slogan often. For effective messaging in the 21st century, a frequency rate of five times is needed to persuade the average American.

Unlike Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, for example, Mr. Trump knows not to claim he's the "best Conservative.' He's more influential by his promoting a patriotic image than it is to proclaim he's the only candidate who can wear the label of "best Conservative.'

His rhetoric most-effectively addresses the angry emotions of most Americans. He anticipated they'd like the idea of a temporary ban on immigrants from Islamic countries to sort things out.

Also, Mr. Trump realizes he has to attract a like-minded pool of voters over economic and national-security issues. Friends have told me their liberal friends from New York to California will secretly vote for a Trump ticket.

It's also been widely reported that he under polls because respondents to pollsters don't always tell the truth about whom they support.

Did you hear Rush today? All week he has been struggling with explaining the conservatives gravitation to Trump. In part, I think he has missed it by first relying on the weird article by David French (NRO, always iffy), and second he hasn't sufficiently explained the key which is, "Why are conservatives NOT, en mass, backing Cruz?"

The French article in a strange way says that the GOPe has overestimated the power of conservatives in the base. I still can't figure out what Rush is talking about here---for years he's been the chief voice claiming conservatives were undercounted. As best I can tell, French claims that the GOPe sees conservatives as only Bible-thumping social conservatives, but that there were more "wings" to conservatism than just that group. Well, he's right, but that seems to destroy his thesis---maybe someone can explain it to me.

The flip side is that Rush, while edging closer, refuses to get into why conservatives are not flocking to Cruz. I have said here, and continue to argue, that this involves four main points (and I do NOT agree with all/any of them necessarily, but I am trying to explain a phenomenon):

1) Cruz is a part of the establishment that has screwed things up. True, he's cordoned off in the outer cloakroom, but he's still "inside the club," and Trump isn't.

2) Cruz has ties to PACs/Goldman Sachs and the lobbyists that are a big, big problem. I personally think his level of "obligation" to such donors is the smallest of any outside of Trump . . . but it's still an issue.

4) This is I think the really big one: People don't trust that Cruz can actually get something done, can actually fix things. I think most people think he'd try. But you know your Yoda: "Do, or do not. There is no try." By his own definitions, Trump has held himself to a different standard. He's the "business guy" who "gets things done" and who "makes deals" that are "good for America." There's no "I'm gonna try to do x, y, z." There's, "I'll build the wall."

Now, I don't know if Rush is having trouble with these points because it's Cruz and he IS a conservative candidate, or because he just hasn't "gotten it" yet. But the conservative litmus test of items that most Trump supporters look at has a 200-font first item, STOP THE FLOW OF ILLEGALS AND MUSLIMS. I think any or all other conservative issues are written in 12-point font, much further down the page. Another major Trump litmus test item is, "Make America Great Again." That's not a slogan. That's a deeply held desire on the part of people for a VICTORIOUS America, an America that is #1 in the world in everything again. And his unabashed nationalism, I think, more than anything else is what has the GOPe terrified, because most of them are globalists. I'm not a conspiracy nut, but there is something to the fact that they are all members of the Trilateral Commission, the CFR, and every other freak-show internationalist cabal you can name. Americans are sick of that.

Love to hear your insights if you've heard Rush struggling with this idea this week.

3) Cruz's overt religiousity turns off a lot of conservatives who aren't "puritanesque" Christians. It's just too much. George Washington NEVER would have allowed someone to say of him that he's "ordained" to be a "king" and "reign over" the United States as Rafael Cruz did of Ted. 4) This is I think the really big one: People don't trust that Cruz can actually get something done, can actually fix things. I think most people think he'd try. But you know your Yoda: "Do, or do not. There is no try." By his own definitions, Trump has held himself to a different standard. He's the "business guy" who "gets things done" and who "makes deals" that are "good for America." There's no "I'm gonna try to do x, y, z." There's, "I'll build the wall." ------------ These two for me.

I keep asking Cruz supporters why is Cruz qualified to be president? Being correct on the ideology does not indicate the ability to be an executive. All Cruz's life he has worked for the govt - even when in private practice it was related to govt cases.

I ask Cruz supporters - has he ever made payroll? Cruz is a brilliant lawyer so he should stay in the Senate and make laws. Trump is conservative enough in that he loves America and her traditions enough to preserve them (conservative) and he has a track record of being a star executive. Was he always successful in business? No. Neither was Apple and Steve Jobs.

Americans want stuff done and are tired of a candidate who is ideologically driven but has zero skills in getting stuff done.

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