This will have a number of results. I wonder how many of them the politicians will say these were unexpected and “unintended consequences”. They certainly should expect them.
* People who want secure communications will buy phones out of state (or country if the feds get their way)
* If Apple/Google comply then LG/Samsung/whoever get more market share
* Companies (foreign and some domestic) stop allowing employees to have Apple/Google devices. Another market share change to non-US companies
* If LG/Samsung/whoever’s secure devices are not allowed in NY (or the US), foreign companies stop putting executives in NY offices (or US offices if the feds get their way). It’s happened with web hosting and will happen with cell phones.
Airbus has claimed in European court that the CIA helped Boeing by illegally tapping phones. There is paranoia that the US gov’t will break the law to help US companies and giving the government keys to “secure” communication is not good.
Secure devices are available. Period. That won’t change. I can make one over the weekend from an unsecure channel on a device and open source libraries. People with a reason to avoid US snooping (e.g. ISIS, child porn rings, mafia, etc) will have secure devices - they can hire lots of people who know devices and crypto way better than me.
You forgot “people will just leave the state”, which they are doing in droves.
Maybe not explicitly for THIS reason, but it’s just one more straw on a too-heavy load.
I didn’t really want to leave NY, but when other circumstances pressured me to it wasn’t that hard given what was happening - and that was 10+ years ago. Not going back, and even when I visit I make a point of spending as little as possible there. Nearly everyone I still know there is of the opinion “I’d leave but for _____.”
It ain't paranoia if they really are out to get you.