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To: Zhang Fei
"Given how the Baath Party has morphed into ISIS and given the Iraqi government a run for its money...

That's not the sort of development I've assumed; I've always understood the Baath party is or was nationalist and leftist in character. It surprises me to hear they've all converted converted to Islamism.

...despite being run on a shoestring relative to the present Iraqi government...

I'm a little curious about this too; Isis seized the wells, along with territory, weaponry, food and slaves. All that this has cost them is human life--at least half the lives are the other side's. Neither is of any concern them. They're running their economy free of overhead or obligation. If the price goes lower, they just pump more. If they run out material, weapons or food they just they just take it. Whose to stop them?

Well that's my understanding and I'm by no means an expert.

I'm not so sure this is entirely the work of the Saudis. With an election so close, dems desperate to stay in power, international finance's plans for a carbon market, obama's hatred of energy development, and concerns about rampant real inflation, lower energy prices must seem an attractive temporary tactic. I wouldn't be surprised to find Soros involved. The minute they've neutered domestic production and won the election, prices will skyrocket.

36 posted on 01/12/2016 10:50:38 PM PST by tsomer
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To: tsomer
That's not the sort of development I've assumed; I've always understood the Baath party is or was nationalist and leftist in character. It surprises me to hear they've all converted converted to Islamism.

Not all. And some are probably doing it for the paycheck or to stay alive. http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/mideast-crisis-iraq-islamicstate/

I'm a little curious about this too; Isis seized the wells, along with territory, weaponry, food and slaves. All that this has cost them is human life--at least half the lives are the other side's. Neither is of any concern them. They're running their economy free of overhead or obligation. If the price goes lower, they just pump more. If they run out material, weapons or food they just they just take it. Whose to stop them?

Modern living standards can't be attained via medieval governance methods. War economies mean significant privation. During WWII, there was rationing even in the US. British subjects went hungry and Soviet citizens starved in the millions, despite Russia's abundance of raw materials and agricultural land. And while ISIS's leadership are in some cases true believers, they are living well relative to the populations they rule. The ebbs and flows of territory due to battlefield developments mean that the population they rule have significant opportunities to flee, if they are mistreated. Therefore they need to keep conditions somewhat reasonable, relative to what the rest of Iraq or Syria has to deal with.

ISIS-controlled Mosul produces only 200K barrels of oil per day. This is out of total Iraqi production of 2.9m barrels per day. But the Iraqi government can sell its oil at world market prices. ISIS has to sell its oil at cut rate prices. In late 2014, world oil prices were $78 per bbl. ISIS was selling its oil at $20. At the same time, everything it buys from the outside world (including food, weapons, oil drilling equipment and parts) - a necessity, due to its lack of industrial capacity as well as its location in the middle of a desert - is at exorbitant prices, because of sanctions. And all this in the midst of a war economy, where every spare dinar is being diverted towards feeding and arming the troops.

As to just taking what you need - to take it, ISIS has to defeat better-armed foes backed by American air support. Most of ISIS's initial victories in Iraq were against areas manned mainly by Sunni Arabs who had been suborned, some of whom has no idea about the true nature of ISIS. Today, the gains are a lot harder, especially against Shiites and Kurds who know they will be massacred if they surrender.

47 posted on 01/13/2016 12:37:25 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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