[Hugin]

But you can’t know from two polls a month apart everything that happened in between. If you look at all the polls, it suggests Cruz went up during that period and has come down. By your assumption Cruz never had a lead at all. To me it looks like he had a small lead and then lost some ground.

[SmokingJoe]

By your assumption Cruz never had a lead at all

Did I say that? Nope
Cruz is still leading in the Fox News and other polls that be was leading in last month. He is behind in the Quinnipiac poll now just like he was last month. Overall, Cruz is still leading in the RCP average in Iowa, just like he was before.
What more ya got?

[SmokingJoe]

And Cruz is shooting up the polls in New Hampshire, despite all Trump's birther bluster. From Hot air today:

Cruz’s net favorables have gone from +14 in November to +33 now, the best of anyone in the field. And this isn’t just a “New Hampshire thing”; as I noted on Friday, it’s true nationally among Republicans as well.

hotair.com/archives/2016/01/11/poll-kasich-now-tied-for-second-with-cruz-in-new-hampshire-as-rubio-drops-to-fourth/comment-page-2/#comment-10398009