W won a close race in 2004 with just under 51% and 284 EV’s. I think, barring a catastrophic candidate, a “comfortable” republican win of, say, 52-53% of the vote is possible, considering how big a wreck Hillary is. This uptick in popular vote brings will buoy the electoral vote for our side by a couple of states - I’m guessing Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That’s about 30 additional EV’s on top of W’s 284.
Either Cruz and Rubio are likely the nominee, both of whom would be viable candidates. As much as the establishment doesn’t like Cruz, and as much as a small portion of the grassroots doesn’t like Rubio, both sides would grin and bear it. If Trump or Jeb are the nominees, however, then it’s a different story.
IDK. I will sit out the election for the first time in 40 years if Trump or Cruz aren’t on the ticket.