Posted on 01/08/2016 5:53:06 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz are circling each other in the race for the Republican nomination and appear to be on the brink of an epic clash.
While the candidates have for months observed a kind of truce, party insiders believe that's about to change - and many are speculating about just how explosive things will get.
Trump appears to be feeling the heat from Cruz, who now enjoys a small but significant polling lead in Iowa, which will hold the first nominating contest on Feb. 1.
In recent days, he has begun to jab Cruz in more aggressive ways, questioning the senator's eligibility for president and attacking his position on immigration reform.
Mitchell McKinney, a professor of political communication at the University of Missouri, speculated that recent comments from Trump are being made with the thought that, "as we're heading into Iowa, I'll give the Cruz supporters something to doubt; maybe something to second-guess their choice."
Trump earlier this week raised the issue of Cruz's Canadian birth, suggesting that the Texas senator could face a lengthy court battle over whether he is constitutionally qualified for the White House. Most experts doubt that Cruz would confront any serious peril in this regard, given that his mother is a U.S.-born citizen.
Cruz's initial response was a tweet implying that Trump had "jumped the shark" in the infamous manner of the "Happy Days" TV show.
But by Thursday, the senator's wife, Heidi, was taking a more serious tack, insisting her husband is "indisputably a U.S. citizen." Cruz himself, in an interview with Bloomberg, insisted that "the legal question is straightforward and clear" regarding his eligibility.
Trump had presented his statements about Cruz's birthplace carefully, suggesting he was simply raising the possibility of Democrats making legal trouble for Cruz. But Trump broadened his attack on Wednesday when he said during an interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer that Cruz was "in favor of amnesty" for illegal immigrants.
Trump's new tone is still not as sharp as some people expected, however, given how serious a threat they believe Cruz poses for his candidacy.
"It's puzzling why Trump is not going after Cruz more directly, because Cruz is a bigger threat than Trump thinks he is," said GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak. "If Trump loses Iowa by a significant margin and then somehow loses New Hampshire.... I think the whole thing falls apart. The piercing of that invincibility begins in Iowa."
Trump has thrown jabs at Cruz in the past, but they have lacked the snap of his verbal punches at the rest of the field. The most memorable - a suggestion that Cruz had behaved "like a little bit of a maniac" in the Senate - generated a backlash among conservative talk-radio figures who had previously been supportive of Trump.
The mini-controversy also produced one of the rare moments when Trump backed away from his earlier rhetoric. Asked about his "maniac" comment during the most recent Republican debate, held in Las Vegas last month, Trump said, "I have gotten to know him [Cruz] over the last three or four days. He has a wonderful temperament. He's just fine. Don't worry about it."
The reluctance to attack has seemed to run both ways. At the same debate, Cruz was asked about Trump's controversial proposal to bar Muslims from entering the United States for a limited, though unspecified, time.
"I understand why Donald made that proposal," Cruz said, adding that he himself advocated a "more narrowly focused" approach.
That was only the most recent example of Cruz's propensity to stay on Trump's good side. Last month, he tweeted that he and Trump getting into a "cage match" was "the Establishment's only hope," adding for good measure, "@realDonaldTrump is terrific."
Trump and Cruz also appeared side by side in September at a rally on Capitol Hill against President Obama's nuclear deal with Iran.
Several unaligned Republican strategists have long believed that Cruz is positioning himself as the alternative choice for Trump voters if the real estate magnate stumbles.
"A number of candidates operate on the assumption that Trump won't get to there from here - that the nomination will be a bridge too far," said John McKager 'Mac' Stipanovich, a long-time Republican operative in Florida. "That being the case, the people who support Trump will either go home or they will need a new horse to ride. Clearly, Cruz intends to be that horse."
The obvious weak link in that strategy, some suggest, is that it assumes Trump's candidacy will implode - something that has been predicted since his campaign's inception but hasn't happened.
As of Thursday evening, Trump held a 15-point lead in the RealClearPolitics national polling average and a two-to-one advantage over his closest rival in New Hampshire, which holds its primary eight days after the Iowa caucuses.
Referring to Cruz's presumed expectation that Trump will fade, Mackowiak said, "It could go the way he wants it to. But it could also go the other way, where Trump is too strong and is on a glide path to the nomination."
Others praise Cruz for avoiding conflict with the combative Trump.
Dave Carney, an unaligned GOP strategist in New Hampshire, ran through a list of other GOP contenders who had attacked Trump, including ex-candidates such as former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, as well as those still running such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
"I don't think it's gotten any of them any mileage," Carney said. "In a multi-candidate field, when you are talking about anything other than your own message, it's a total distraction. Cruz has taken an alternative path, and I think that's because their campaign is thought-out, strategically, over the long haul."
But Carney also suggested that, with Cruz becoming a definite favorite to win Iowa, Trump's relative civility toward him is coming to an end.
"The only person who really stands in the way of Trump is Cruz," he said. "Trump is going to realize that and unload on him."
Iowa looks very good for Cruz.
[Iowa looks very good for Cruz. ]
Yup, it looked good for Huckabee and Santorum too...
I am a Cruz supporter. But it is rather silly to call a doward 1% or less move, on the issuance of a single date, a downward trend.
Hey, it’s pointing DOWN.
Cruz is shooting UP!
Are you assigning roles by age, hair color, or proclivity for building casinos?
Cruz is who I support for the Presidency. But if he does not get it, I would vote for Trump at this point in a heartbeat.
But I believe something more is going on here.
I think both Cruz and Trump are smart men, and I know they have worked together in the past.
I believe Trump is perhaps sanitizing Cruz...getting some of these issues out there and completely taken care of before the general.
Why?
Because I think both Trump and Cruz have decided that it needs to be the two of them on the ticket come Novmber. At this point with the polling...that’s Trump/Cruz. As the primaries go on...it may turn into Cruz/Trump.
We shall see.
The birther thing has elevated Cruz to Trump's stature. Even the lo-fos know Ted's name now.
So everyone will be watching the next debate to see Trump AND Cruz.
Cruz will be standing right next to Trump, only boosting his stature as "most presidential."
Loudmouth bluster vs the man who measures carefully before acting with efficiency.
“The birther thing has elevated Cruz to Trump’s stature.”
I’ll believe that when I see 25,000 people at a Cruz rally.
The gap will close overnight when Carson drops out.
Carson and Cruz are both religious conservatives, and if I recall correctly, Trump said some unkind things about Carson earlier in the race. That can't help him with Carson supporters.
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/trend
Definition of trend
to extend in a general direction : follow a general course
Exaggerating and misleading is not a way to be taken seriously. Do you want to convince people, or just pretend things are better than they really are?
So Ted knocks off the giant. Can he draw those people clamoring for that giant to the polls in November. I think not
The MSM seem to be in the tank for Trump. NOTING is brought out about his heavy DEM donations, his recent donation to VA Dem Gov...gun grabber while running on the GOP Presidential ticket, his 5 times party changes.
But they will run with this BS birther stuff on Cruz.
The MSM was in the tank for Clinton and Obama. I don’t trust them.
If I was Cruz I’d bring this stuff up on Trump. It is what turned me off him. We are warned about people saying that which Tickles the Ear in 2nd Timothy. And I’m afraid that is what Trump is doing. He just tacked on Mexico paying for building the border wall, as true Conservatives are clamoring for one, that was not a big idea as he knew it was not going to happen. If we want a wall we will have to build it. Noting is said about the tunnels. Seismic equipment could be used to detect that one would think.
[Ted Cruz isn’t campaigning in liberal urban centers. ]
Well guess what??? Liberal urban centers are the areas that make or break an election. Look at any general election map. If ANY candidate can swing an urban area to RED, that is an impressive feat.
Good video analogy. Insults and braggadocio only go so far. In a heads up debate on substance Trump loses every time.
In other words, the article's author knows absolutely nothing new, and is throwing a bucket-ful of verbal "chum" in the water to see if he can provoke an attack. (*sigh*) Vacuous journalism at its finest. It's a bit like a reporter setting fire to a house in order to "scoop" the other outlets on the "hot story of the arson" (pun slightly intended).
I'm a Cruz man, but this is just silly...
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