I was running numbers in OH on the "early voting" in 2012 just as you are, with every bit the same certainty. Didn't work out that way at all.
yeah I ran OH numbers on 2012 also.
The difference in that race was Franklin County. COMPLETELY out of whack and the only place in OH where Obama supposedly picked up 60,000 votes while losing votes or maintaining the status quo in the other urban areas.
If I had to pinpoint one country in the entire country where voter fraud may have been an issue, Franklin County would be #1 followed by NC as a whole.
Cool I found my link from 4 years ago from Google Docs. I don’t remember the password but these were the estimates I had. I thought I had a file where I updated the actual results, but can’t find it but when I went through it I know Franklin County actuals were way, way higher than projected. That is what caused everyone to miss