Look, it's most probably going to be down to Trump and Cruz, in the end.
Cruz is NOT attracting blacks, he'll never get the disaffected DEMs, and I'm not all that certain that he's attracting as many women as Trump is, but that could change. Veterans? Trump gets them. The Hispanic vote is probably divided amongst them.
No way, NO WAY AT ALL, does Cruz get the North East and Pa.; Trump just may...at least he makes them a fight.
Do you watch Trump's rallies? I BET YOU DON'T. :-) It's all a matter of nosed counting, based on many different things.
Are you a glass 1/2 full type, or a glass 1/2 empty type?
National numbers are great at taking the temperature of the mood of the country but it doesn't mean a thing if that enthusiasm doesn't translate to GOTV efforts. So let's see what happens in the early states. I think that will help really tell the tale one way or the other.
Either way I'm pleased that Jeb, aka Mr. Inevitable as turned out to be pretty evitable after all. 😠(see? Sarcasm at work there)