Posted on 12/14/2015 9:57:14 AM PST by SeekAndFind
In case you missed it yesterday, here’s Trump doing his version of “I know you are but what am I?” after Cruz got caught on audio at a fundraiser questioning Trump’s judgment. (Cruz already laughed off the “maniac” line on Twitter last night.) I’ve seen righties on social media today scoffing at the idea that this criticism, indicting Cruz for not getting along with the rest of the Senate, will do Cruz any harm. Voters hate Congress, especially tea-party voters. How does it damage Cruz to remind them that he shares that hatred?
Okay, but Trump’s pitching himself to his own voters as a sort of hybrid, a strongman who’ll decimate their enemies but also a world-class dealmaker who’ll convince his opponents to go along with his plans. Sometimes, like in what he said last week about imposing the death penalty via executive order, he emphasizes the strongman approach. Other times, like when he talks about trade and China, he emphasizes his skills as a negotiator. His attack on Cruz here is clumsy but I think he could develop it into something that’d play better with his own supporters, that Cruz is really nothing but a grandstander with no strategy for getting his many enemies in Washington to give him what he wants on policy. Elect him and there’ll be more paralysis; elect Trump and he’ll use his Trumpian superpowers to convince Democrats to give Trump fans the things they want, like more protectionism.
For all the blather about how Trump and Cruz are running similar “burn it all down” anti-Washington insurgent campaigns, their core messages are different. Cruz, the Reaganite, is promising to get the government out of people’s way. Trump, the statist, is promising to get the government to start working for people like you instead of for people like “them.” Convincing his fans that Cruz can’t make the government work, period, would give some of them pause. (Plus, the idea that Cruz doesn’t have the strength to impose his will on his opponents would also square with the “Cruz is a beta male” attack from Trump that will inevitably come, maybe as soon as tomorrow night.)
Trump’s problem now, though, is that it’s not enough to keep his own supporters in the fold. This is wishful thinking:
Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski: "Sen. Cruz has become the flavor du jour of the week."
— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) December 14, 2015
Trump’s 10 points behind in Iowa now according to the new Selzer poll. He can’t win anymore simply by keeping his own voters in his tent. He needs to start bringing other people’s voters in. And when you look at Selzer’s crosstabs, you find that Cruz is more likely to poach Trump voters than Trump is likely to poach Cruz’s. I’ve written half a dozen posts over the last few months wondering if it’s really true that Trump fans, who tend to be less dogmatically conservative than the average Republican, would shift to a rock-ribbed conservative like Cruz potentially. Yep, it’s true. In Iowa, at least.
Of course, voter preference is fluid and the Iowa caucuses are still six weeks away. But Cruz’s strategy of embracing, rather than attacking, Trump—even after Trump makes controversial or offensive statements—appears to have served him well, at least so far. In the new poll, respondents who say they support Trump have an extremely positive view of Cruz: 73 percent view him favorably, while 18 percent view him unfavorably. Asked to state their second-choice preference, these Trump supporters overwhelming pick Cruz (49 percent), with Rubio (16 percent) a distant second. If Trump falters or alienates his current supporters, they appear quite open to supporting Cruz.
But the reverse is less true: Cruz supporters aren’t nearly as enthused at the prospect of backing Trump. Overall, they do view him positively. Sixty percent have a favorable view of Trump, versus 33 percent who view him unfavorably. Yet asked to state their second choice of candidate, Cruz supporters are about as likely to favor Ben Carson (26 percent) as they are Trump (25 percent).
The new CW as of Saturday night, when the Selzer poll came out, is that Trump might be done if he loses Iowa. Trump’s mystique depends on being the consummate unconquerable winner; once that mystique is shattered, the theory goes, then all of his support crumbles. I don’t buy it, though. Iowa’s not known for picking nominees anymore; it’d be easy for Trump and his fans to dismiss it as a socially conservative outlier if he turns around and wins New Hampshire a week later. What might do him in, though, is if he gets roundly crushed by Cruz in Iowa, of which there now seems to be a nonzero possibility. Trump the strongman may lose a battle here and there but he always wins the war. Trump the strongman is not supposed to be routed, though, under any circumstances. If he is, the media’s going to go berserk during the week leading up to New Hampshire about how Trump is a paper tiger, Trumpmania is a fad, etc etc. Frankly, given how useful Trump might be to Cruz in New Hampshire in holding Rubio back, I wonder if Team Cruz is hoping they don’t win Iowa in a giant blowout either.
Exit question: Politico claims more leaked audio from one of Cruz’s fundraisers is coming this week, this time showing Cruz striking a “more moderate and inclusive tone on social issues than he does when speaking to Iowa audiences.” Does anyone think that’ll do any damage? What I mean is, does anyone think Ted Cruz doesn’t realize he’s being recorded at these things and is watching his language with that in mind? (Even in last week’s audio questioning Trump’s judgment, he was careful to say that he likes and respects Trump.) If anything, it’s probably Team Cruz itself that’s leaking this stuff. They know that many center-righties don’t like him but will consider supporting him if he and Trump are the final two. Leaking “moderate”-sounding stuff on social issues is Cruz’s way of winking at them that he’d govern less dogmatically than they might fear.
“So you are calling Rush Limbaugh a liar now ?”
Why did Rush say he could not remember what Cruz’s statement was he made last week that set off Trump? His whole first hour would have been superfluous if he had acknowledged it.
I just caught the last part of Rush talking about what Trump said. Rush is now saying that Trump was responding in kind to what he thought Cruz said about him based on a story in the New York Times.
What Trump THOUGHT Cruz said?. No, it was what Cruz actually said. It was in the New York Times, but there is an audio of the comment; it is not a made-up article. I am sure Rush is aware that it is not just a story Trump based his comments on, but an audio, as Trump mentioned to Chris Wallace.
So he is sort of backing off, but still hitting Trump in the way he struck back, in the way the establishment hits Cruz. Well, the way the establishment hits Trump is the same way Cruz hit Trump. The moderators in the second debate used the same exact judgment angle against Trump that was put out there by Jindal and others.
I have tried, and failed, to get anyone here to admit that Cruz’s statement was a low blow. As Rush finally said (and what I have been saying), Cruz was RESPONDING IN KIND to what Cruz said.
The Trump YUUGIE Koolaid has impaired their sensibilities.
Yes, he is pretty successful and does what it takes, within the system, to win. So you are preaching to the wrong guy if you want to bring-up petty garbage that has nothing to do with anything. Go sit in your tower and judge that.
Rush just talked about what Cruz is alleged to have said that tripped Trum’s trigger.
“...because you have your Trump nozzle on too tight.”
It is you Cruz-bots who are always posting and feasting your eyes on full-bodied photos of Cruz. It is getting creepy.
It’s called : The Hyper Trump Koolaid Hypocritical Schizophrenia
And sure the mob kills people, but I sure love their concrete...
“Rush just talked about what Cruz is alleged to have said that tripped Trum’s trigger.”
“alleged to have said”
“Alleged” carries the implication of maybe. Someone at the meeting recorded it. He said it.
LOL. Not me.
We have been through your excuses before, their lame and insulting to anyone with half a brain. Just review your pings and you will find that I have debunked your feeble minded excuses more than once.
“LOL. Not me.”
Thanks, I appreciate you humor. Some people are wound up a little tight today, for some reason.
Like what Trump did to Walker with the exact same talking points the Liberals in Wisconsin had used.
Exactly.
Argue with Rush, he is the one that said Trump was responding to what he “thought” Cruz said.
RE: Let’s see Trump’s voting record in office.
That’s his advantage, HE HAS NONE. Therefore, he can attack any rival who has held public office while his record remains blank.
He does have PAST PUBLIC STATEMENTS, of which his escape hatch if he is called on it is “I’ve changed my mind”.
Just because you repeat your talking points on multiple threads does not mean you have "debunked" anything...
Since Ted won’t pick a fight with him, he’s decided to pick one with Ted, even though Ted has defended him.
Desperation.
Just like a typical politician.
Attacking Cruz is bad move by Trump. It will piss conservatives off. Many of Trumps supporters also like Cruz and this move alienates them.
It was okay when Trump attacked Jeb!, Kasich, Rubio, Fiorina, etc because they aren’t conservatives.
But Attacking Cruz will backfire on him. If he wins the nomination, some of Cruz’s supporters might not come out and vote.
OK, let’s look at this for the issue of say, the budget.
Every single Republican tells us during the campaign that they will be FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE and not submit to a budget that will INCREASE our debt to unsustainable levels, increase unnecessary spending or shrink the military’s capabilities.
When push comes to shove and the fight comes to the floor, and we see Democrats fighting back and Obama threatening to veto any budget proposals that Republicans will submit that keeps their promises to their constituents, what is a principled conservative to do?
GREAT POINT!
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