I read an article earlier about the pollster they use.
She is very good but she relies more on past elections and traditional caucus goers.
The thing we don’t know, and won’t know until after the vote takes place is how many new caucus goers will Trump bring to the table and how many of them will actually caucus.
That is the thing no one knows at this point.
One of the recent speach ( Iowa yesterday IIRC) a young woman explained to all how to fill out the caucus cards and where and when a training session would be held for all newbies He and his staff are working on it! Lots of young people getting involved. Lots of enthusiasm !!